Researchers from Princeton University recently released a study claiming Facebook could lose 80 percent of it's users by 2017 by using an applied disease model also used to map out Myspace's downfall, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The researchers used the model which studies the spread of diseases to search internet queries made on Google for the Menlo Park social network because they claim the life of a social network can be accurately compared to that of diseases, according to the LA Times.
The group stated this is the result of users joining and leaving social networks when their friends do, similar to the way a disease spreads and dies among people in contact with each other, the LA Times reported.
Before applying the theory to Facebook, the researchers tested it on Myspace and claim the sites popularity duration "portrays the full lifespan of the social network," according to the LA Times.
After the model successfully mapped out the lifespan of Myspace, researchers turned on Facebook, "whose search queries saw a decline in 2013," the LA Times reported. The applied model concluded Facebook will lose 20 percent of their users by December and will continue to lose another 60 percent between 2015 and 2017.
Though the researchers have tried and tested the model, the LA Times cited some reasons why Facebook will probably not lose 80 percent of their users and "die out" by 2017.
If Facebook saw a drop of 20 percent of their users by December, not only would that be the largest decline in users, it would be the first decline in users, according to the LA Times.
Another argument against the model is Myspace is not the appropriate social network to compare Facebook to, the LA Times reported. While Myspace had 75.9 million monthly active users at its peak, Facebook had 1.9 billion active members this past September alone.
Facebook would also have to lose 317 million active users every year for the next three years in order to match the 80 percent user decline the Princeton researchers predicted, the LA Times reported.
Another fault in the study is it was based on a decline in search queries for Facebook, not actual user decline, according to the LA Times. Another big contributor to the unlikely decline of Facebook is because it has grown into something more than a social network.
According to Menlo Park, "Facebook is used by companies to reach out to consumers, it's used by users to message one another, it is used to sign into other apps and online services, and most importantly, it is the world's directory," the LA Times reported.
With the contributing factors mentioned about, Facebook is not likely to see a decline of 80 percent of its users by 2017, though a decline of some sort would not be improbable, according to the LA Times.
