Vice President Kamala Harris' sudden and dramatic entry into the presidential race has Democrats hopeful they'll hold onto their narrow Senate majority — but Republicans aren't convinced.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that with Harris at the top of the ticket, his party was "so enthusiastic about the prospects of winning the presidency, keeping the Senate and winning the House," the Associated Press reported Saturday.
Schumer predicted that former President Donald Trump's questioning of Harris' racial identity this week and the past remarks in which his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, criticized childless women and men, would hurt Republicans in November.
"The best thing Donald Trump did since he won the nomination was pick Vance — for Democrats," Schumer told AP.
Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, countered that Harris' liberal politics would ultimately weaken the surge of enthusiasm that greeted her after President Joe Biden quit his reelection campaign and endorsed Harris last month.
Daines said Republicans could pick up as many as 10 seats in the Senate, which is now controlled by a 51-member coalition of 48 Democrats and three independents.
"The Democrats have to pitch a perfect game. We have to win one of them," he said. "I like our odds."
West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, is widely expected to elect popular, two-term Republican Gov. Jim Justice to replace him.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists four Senate races in seats now held by Democrats as toss-ups, and three others, all involving Democratic incumbents, as competitive.
Three other Senate races also have the potential to heat up in the three months before Election Day on Nov. 5, according to the Cook Political Report.
Here's a look at those contests:
Michigan
Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are expected to win their Tuesday primaries to vie for the seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who's retiring after four terms, the Detroit Free Press reported Friday.
Although no Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in the Bay State since 1994, Trump holds an average lead of 1.2 percentage points over Harris, according to Real Clear Politics, and the Senate race is considered a toss-up.
The two most recent polls, conducted by Fox News and The Hill/Emerson College, showed Slotkin with leads of 5 and 4 points, respectively.
Montana
Political action committees spent more than $27 million through July on ads tied to the race between three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and GOP challenger Tim Sheehy in the heavily Republican state, the Montana Free Press reported Thursday.
The bulk of the money —- about $19.5 million — was about evenly split supporting or attacking Sheehy, a Navy veteran and first-time candidate, and the overwhelming majority of the other spending went to anti-Tester ads, according to the Free Press.
The most recent poll in the toss-up state, conducted June 29-July 1, put Sheehy ahead, 50%-45%, but a June 11-13 survey of likely voters sponsored by the Montana Republican Party had the candidates tied at 46% each, according to the FiveThirtyEight website.
Nevada
The race between Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen and Republican retired Army Capt. Sam Brown was rated "lean Democratic" by the Cook Political Report until April, when it was changed to a toss-up.
At the time, Cook editor Jessica Taylor cited Trump's polling lead over Biden, as well as the state's highly transient population and "unique post-COVID economic hangover," according to the Hill.
Rosen has led Brown by between 2 and 12 percentage points since early July. The most recent survey, conducted July 22-24, gave her a 5-point edge, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Ohio
Three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing Republican luxury auto dealer and blockchain investor Bernie Moreno, a political newcomer, in the toss-up race in the Buckeye State.
Brown has led Moreno by as much as 8 percentage points since early July but his lead shrank to just 4 points, 46% to 42%, in poll results released Thursday by the Ohio AARP.
But the July 23-28 survey of likely voters also showed people over 50 favored Moreno by 2 points, with AARP Ohio state director Jennifer Carlson saying they comprised the state's "biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election."
To "secure a win in November, candidates must prioritize the critical concerns of voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers to lowering the cost of health care, especially prescription drugs," Carlson said in a prepared statement.
Arizona
Republican former TV news anchor Kari Lake, who has still refused to concede her loss in the state's 2022 governor's race, won a Tuesday primary to face Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego in the race to succeed independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Gallego, a former Marine, announced his candidacy in early 2023, after Sinema left the Democratic party, but before she announced in March that she wouldn't seek a second term because her belief in bipartisan compromise wasn't "what America wants right now."
The Cook Political report says the contest leans in favor of Gallego, with polls showing him ahead or tied with Lake in seven of eight polls since early June. Her only lead, by 1 percentage point, came in a survey sponsored by Lake's campaign, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The most recent survey, conducted July 22-23, gave Gallego a 4-point edge, 46% to 42%, down from 7 points from the week before.
Pennsylvania
Three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. faces Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who lost a 2022 GOP Senate primary to celebrity heart surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz, in a race that's rated competitive with Casey holding the advantage.
More than a dozen polls conducted since late June in the battleground Keystone State showed Casey consistently ahead, including a July 22-24 Fox News survey that showed him up by 13 points, 55% to 42%.
Last week, McCormick's campaign released a video attempting to tie Harris to Casey, son of the late Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr., according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.
In a memo released by the campaign, strategist Mark Harris claimed that "our internal data finds that Harris's image is in a worse position among most key groups in the election than Biden's was."
Wisconsin
Although the Badger State is also ranked as competitive, polls show two-term Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has been tied or ahead of likely Republican challenger Eric Hovde since February.
The most recent surveys from late July showed Balwin up by 11 and 8 points, leading Hovde 54% to 43% and 49% to 43%, respectively.
Hovde, a real-estate scion and bank CEO, also ran for Senate in 2012 but lost the GOP nomination to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who was beaten by Baldwin in the general election.
Baldwin raked in more than $2.5 million in campaign contributions in July, nearly seven times the $374,000 raised by Hovde, who faces two opponents — a farmer and a late-in-life college student — in the Aug. 13 GOP primary, according to the Wisconsin State Journal.
