For the first three seasons of its run, "LOST" was one of the best television shows of all-time. It captured the imagination and attention of fans in a way no other show could. At the mid-point of the series, it would have been fair to argue that "LOST" would go down as a Pantheon show when all was said and done.
But then "LOST" devolved into a needlessly convoluted mess over its second half. The web of story lines became so tangled not even Spider-Man could work his way out of it. The series ended on a low note and fans (read: me) are still upset about it five years later.
But therein lies the lesson. Past results are not always an indicator of future success. The same applies to fantasy football, especially on the eve of a new season. With no sample size to speak of this year, all we can do is take the information we have from last year and draw educated guesses. But we also must leave ourselves some wiggle room.
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers, for instance. Last season, they finished second in offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) while posting top ten finishes in passing, receiving and scoring. With Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown healthy, quality numbers will still be posted. But All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey is already set to miss more games (eight) than Pittsburgh's 11 offensive starters missed (seven) in 2014. Breakout star Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, while second-year wide receiver Martavis Bryant will miss the first four. As a result, Pittsburgh's offense may not be quite as explosive as last year.
That's why I'm here, to try and sparse through the data and marry last year's trends with this year's knowledge to come up with some helpful fantasy tips. Below is a list of players that I am hot and cold on for Week 1. Above all else, though, have fun. Football is back!
Hot:
QB: Ryan Tannehill
I'm not sure if Tannehill will ever be a bona fide franchise quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, but he's certainly a solid fantasy option in Week 1. Tannehill is coming off a season in which he posted career bests in completion percentage (66.4), passing yards (4,045), passing touchdowns (27), interceptions (12) and rushing yards (311). A second year in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's scheme and new weapons in Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker should only help.
But most importantly, Tannehill is playing the Washington Redskins who surrendered the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. No. 1 cornerback DeAngelo Hall is returning from two torn ACLs, while No. 2 cornerback Bashaud Breeland will be serving a suspension. It's open season on Washington's depleted secondary.
RB: Ryan Mathews
Yeah, I know he's let you down more than a disappointing child in a bad father-son movie, but just bare with me. DeMarco Murray is coming off a season in which he totaled 449 touches in the regular season alone. Historically, running backs experience a regression after such a significant workload, and Murray isn't exactly the picture of perfect health.
Chip Kelly didn't pay Mathews $11 million to ride the bench. Philly will spell Murray often to keep him fresh and that means Mathews will have ample opportunity to shine in what should be a prolific offense. Think about it, Giovani Bernard still averaged 13 touches per game over his final six contests playing behind Jeremy Hill.
The Eagles face Atlanta's abysmal run defense, which allowed the most rushing touchdowns (21) in the NFL last year. Thirteen touches is more than enough for Mathews to have an impact.
WR: Julian Edelman
Like a Greg Olsen or a Matt Forte, Edelman is the unsexy pick that will help you win your league. A PPR monster, the scrappy Edelman is Tom Brady's No. 1 wideout who, if healthy, will finish around 100 receptions for the year. Helping him get off to a fast start will be a Pittsburgh secondary in flux.
The Steelers defense surrendered the ninth most fantasy points to wide receivers last year while ranking 26th in receiving yards allowed per game (265.2) and 18th in total receptions (350). They'll be working in some rookie defensive backs this year and growing pains are to be expected. With the Patriots in all out "Eff You" mode thanks to Deflategate, Edelman should see a healthy dose of targets tonight.
TE: Tyler Eifert
It's now or never, kid. Eifert, a 2013 first-rounder, has failed to break out in his first two seasons. Injuries limited him to just one game in 2014, but this year he is fully healthy and won't have to compete with Jermaine Gresham for snaps. I know Andy Dalton scares a lot of you, but the Bengals have produced a competent passing offense under him over the last four years.
I'm a believer in Eifert's ability and the Raiders did allow the sixth most receiving touchdowns (29) in the league last year. With star linebacker Khalil Mack set to focus more on pass-rushing this year, Eifert should be able to break free in this one.
Bonus: Larry Donnell
Cold:
QB: Andrew Luck
You're not benching Luck, I get it. I wouldn't either. I'm just saying he may have a rough go of it this Sunday. The Buffalo Bills allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season while finishing the year third against the pass (205.8) and first in sacks (54.0). Adding Rex Ryan as head coach and a few nifty offensive pieces won't completely mask the team's quarterback troubles, but they will help.
Luck is poised for a monster season thanks to the additions of Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Frank Gore. But Indy still has a lot of question marks along the offensive line and will be playing on the road in this one. Do I think the Colts will win this game? Yes. But do I think Luck will post top five QB numbers in it? No.
RB: Alfred Morris
In fantasy, Morris has a high floor. In three seasons, he hasn't missed a single game and has posted at least 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns every year. He's a safe bet overall. But he produced just one 100-yard effort in 2014 and is now playing for a team that starts Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Yikes.
Washington's offensive line has looked abysmal this preseason and No. 5 overall pick Brandon Scherff didn't even last two weeks at right tackle before the Skins moved him inside. Throw in the fact that the Redskins will be playing arguably the top defensive line in the NFL (Ndamukong Suh gives me nightmares) and it's not looking like a promising start for Morris.
WR: Jordan Matthews
Hey, remember what I said about Atlanta's run defense? Well, their pass defense was just as bad in 2014. On paper, that makes this a good matchup for Matthews. But I'm not so sure.
Matthews is a second-year player elevated to WR1 status due to attrition, not accomplishment. Chip Kelly tried and failed to re-sign Jeremy Maclin, pushing Matthews to the forefront out of necessity. I'm not saying he's not talented, but is he really ready to be a No. 1 wide receiver?
Atlanta's secondary may be lacking overall, but Desmond Trufant is one of the best young cornerbacks in the league and he'll be draped all over Matthews in Week 1. I'm reluctant to buy into the hype just yet.
TE: Jimmy Graham
You're not going to sit a guy like Graham. That would be ludicrous. But you might want to temper your expectations for Week 1. The St. Louis Rams were surprisingly stingy against tight ends last year, allowing just the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. In their two games against the Seahawks last season they did not allow a single touchdown to opposing TEs.
Plus, Seattle just doesn't sling it like the New Orleans Saints do. Since Russell Wilson became the starter in 2012, no Seattle pass catcher has topped 98 targets in a single season. Graham racked up 124 just last season. He's still the No. 2 tight end in fantasy, but his upside is limited somewhat by Seattle's offense.