The Houston Astros have been one of the MLB's biggest surprises this season and starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel is a paramount reason why. The left-hander is 17-6 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 28 starts (200 2/3 innings). Will the Astros be able to sign him to a contract extension?
In late August it was reported the two sides were discussing an extension, but last week rumors indicated the talks were tabled and would be revisited in the offseason (per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports). However, there is still chatter about what the deal might look like, and it's important to know how the team might work to fit him in their budget.
"While the Astros would like to lock up Dallas Keuchel into free agency (so they're thinking about at least a four-year deal), it's not going to be easy," Heyman added today in his latest edition of Inside Baseball. "If you think about it, he's already guaranteed more than $10 million as he's heading into arbitration (about $6 million next year as a first-year arbitration pitcher, plus at least 80 percent of that next year), so that mitigates the need for security."
When speaking with Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle in late August, Keuchel provided some insight regarding his stance with the Astros and the current contract situation.
"This is all I've known, and it's where I want to be," he said. "I know we're in a great position for the next probably five, 10 years, and that's what it's all about, it's all about winning. Me personally, it's not about the dollar amount. It's about winning, because it doesn't last forever. I know that. So at the end of the day, I just want to win. I want one of those rings.
"With that being said, it's got to be something that's fair and that's right for both parties. I'm not trying to break the bank. I'm just out here to have fun and pitch and do the best I can."
Houston's payroll is about $93 million this season and there's $43 million committed to 2016. That doesn't count the raises due to Keuchel, Evan Gattis, Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena, Hank Conger, Josh Fields and Marwin Gonzalez in arbitration. Additionally, Scott Kazmir is slated to hit free agency and the club may want to work on retaining him after his success since arriving in July.
While Keuchel isn't an immediate concern because he can't become a free agent until after the 2018 season, the Astros would probably prefer to take care of him sooner than later, especially if he wins the Cy Young Award this year.
So what would an extension through his arbitration years look like?
The Boston Red Sox extended starter Wade Miley through his arbitration years this past offseason and inked the left-hander to a three-year, $19.25 million deal. The Cardinals also locked up Lance Lynn for $22 million over three years. Prior to the 2014 season, the Nationals settled with Jordan Zimmermann on a two-year, $24 million pact.
"Lynn may be the closest comparable to Keuchel among these extension signers, as the latter is projected to accumulate 1.0 fWAR over the balance of the season, which would bring the two in line," writes Matt Jackson of SB Nation.
"A three-year, $27.5 million agreement would strike the balance between his promise and this risk, and would set him up for a final monster contract as he enters his thirties, and hopefully, his prime."
However, if the two sides are thinking about a four-year deal, that number could inch closer to $40 million, considering the average annual salary for starting pitchers is rapidly increasing (it was $4.88 million back in 2011) due to demand in recent years.