Over the weekend rumors suggested the Arizona Diamondbacks made a six-year, $120 million offer to starting pitcher Johnny Cueto and it was said the right-hander rejected the contract. Will he be able to land a bigger deal or did he make a mistake?
"The offer, which would have easily ranked as the largest financial commitment in club history, was rejected, according to a source, confirming an MLB.com report on Sunday night," writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Cueto, 29, is one of the top free agent starters on the market and his value would have been even higher if he hadn't faltered with the Kansas City Royals during the second half of 2015. It was initially believed he could make $200 million before his struggles, but that number has significantly decreased due to a number of factors, including the performances of David Price and Zack Greinke this past season.
So how much is Cueto really worth?
Here are some predictions from MLB experts:
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden: six years, $132 million
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports: six years, $144 million
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com: five years, $115 million
However, on Sunday the Detroit Tigers reportedly inked right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, who is also among the top starters on the market, to a five-year, $110 million deal, which could negatively affect Cueto. Zimmermann has been ranked ahead of Cueto on free agent lists by a number of analysts.
"In theory, Zimmermann's failure to land say, a six-year, $130 million contract could hurt other pitchers who figured to fall in line behind him - Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, maybe even Cueto," writes FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
Zimmermann had an uncharacteristic campaign in 2015 (13-10, 3.66 ERA in 33 starts) and had also received Tommy John surgery earlier in his career while Cueto's second half was terrible (5-7, 4.34 ERA in 15 starts) and he also dealt with elbow inflammation earlier in the season. He woke up for a couple of starts in the postseason, but is that enough to sell teams that his recent slide isn't a major concern?
It's no surprise Cueto rejected the deal because he and his agent probably want to see what all of the other starters make this offseason so they can make a better case in their negotiations. However, with so few teams ready to throw enormous contracts at starting pitchers approaching their 30s, perhaps Cueto made a mistake in rejecting Arizona's offer.
Additionally, rumors have not linked Cueto to many destinations. That may be a bit of a concern, but it's also possible teams are more focused on other top arms before they shift their attention to Cueto, who is seemingly considered a second-tier free agent starter with Price and Greinke leading the way as well as other more cost-effective options such as Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo and John Lackey still available.
"Johnny Cueto may be getting overlooked in free agency," writes Heyman. "Had he been a free agent after last year, he would have received a massive deal, and it seems he still should. As noted on MLB Network, he has the third highest ERA plus since 2012, at 140, behind Clayton Kershaw's incredible 176 and Greinke's 142."
We'll have to wait and see, but I'd say Cueto is taking a big gamble after turning down the Diamondbacks and he could become a late signer like James Shields was last offseason.