May 6, 2016.
That was the date that both Marvel and DC studios had set to release respective mega blockbusters "Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice" and "Captain America 3." Yes, both movies were set to be released on the same day. Each film is probably jam packed with comic book goodness, but they would undoubtedly eat into each other's ticket sales and fail to maximize profits. For that reason, DC decided to move up the release date of "Dawn" to March 25th and end this silly game of (super) chicken.
It doesn't matter how good the films are. The studios had to take into account outside factors that could affect box office performance. The same thing applies to fantasy football. Outside of your two or three studs, it's hard to know which players to start. You have to take into consideration recent trends and matchups when figuring out your starting lineup. Outside factors are just as important in fantasy as they are in Hollywood.
To help with your decisions, here are a few players worth starting and some to avoid.
Worth It:
QB: Kirk Cousins
Captain Kirk of the Starship Enterprise, at your service. Sorry, wrong franchise. But the results this week should be as successful as most of James T. Kirk's missions. Yes, Cousins has been up and down this season. But from a fantasy standpoint, he's been solid. He's averaging just over 17 points a week in standard scoring leagues, and just threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle's Legion of Boom. This week, he faces an Arizona Cardinal's pass defense that is giving up 302 yards a game, good for 31st in the league. Plus, Cardinals defensive end Calais Campbell is out due to an MCL strain. The Redskins may not be a great team, and Cousins may not be a great quarterback, but he'll do just fine for your fantasy needs this week.
RB: Justin Forsett
Raise your hand if you predicted Justin Forsett would be a top ten fantasy running back this season. Now, raise your hand if you're a bold faced liar. No one saw the odd turn of events in Baltimore coming, but Forsett has taken full advantage of the opportunity. He's averaging ten carries and almost five receptions per game. He's had three double digit fantasy outputs, and he leads the league in yards per carry at 5.9. What's good about him is that he lets the game come to him and never tries to Forsett (get it?). Okay, no more lame joke attempts, back to the numbers. Baltimore is facing a Tampa Bay defense that just gave up over 100 receiving yards to Saints running backs last week and has allowed six rushing touchdowns so far this season. Right place, right time, right matchup.
WR: Golden Tate
Calvin Johnson is listed as questionable right now with an ankle injury, but all the buzz coming out of Detroit is that they may elect to sit him this week to help him heal faster. And while the Lions are facing a solid pass defense from the Minnesota Vikings, they are still going to throw the ball around. Matthew Stafford is averaging 35 pass attempts a game; that's good for seventh most in the league. Golden Tate should see a lot more targets if Johnson sits. He's coming off back-to-back games with over 115 yards and could continue that streak this week.
TE: Delanie Walker
Walker, currently a top ten fantasy tight end, has overachieved tremendously, given the messy quarterback situation in Tennessee. Yes, he's coming off his worst game of the season. But remember, outside factors! The Titans are playing the Jaguars, who have the worst passing defense in the NFL. They've allowed touchdowns to tight ends in four of their last five games. Walker is a must-start in all formats; don't even worry about the QB situation. Playing against the Jaguars is like a Denzel Washington movie; even if it's bad, it's still going to hit pay dirt ("The Equalizer" has made over $65 million!!!).
Avoid:
QB: Tony Romo
The Cowboys are playing the Seahawks this week. I know Kirk Cousins just had a solid fantasy night against them, but he's averaging 6 more pass attempts per game than Romo right now. Plus, the Redskins did absolutely nothing on offense for the entire first half and were helped out by the refs. Dallas has transitioned into a smash mouth ground based offensive attack. They are going to ride DeMarco Murray all the way to either a season ending injury or a playoff berth. One or the other. Regardless, I don't see Romo having 30-plus pass attempts against the most talented secondary in the league. He could have an effective game, but I don't think the volume will be there for a big fantasy day.
RB: Doug Martin
It is officially time we stop looking at Doug Martin as a quality NFL running back. He had one HUGE game against the Raiders in his rookie year, and has largely been disappointing since then. He's basically been like most of the stars on "LOST" who failed to have successful careers after the show ended. His yards per carry have plummeted every season, and now stands at a laughable 2.5 this year. Not only that, but he's a big injury risk. Bobby Rainey has been much more productive behind essentially the same offensive line in his time in Tampa Bay. Normally, I agree with Grantland's Bill Simmons and never bet against an athlete with two first names. But in this case, it's time to cut Doug Martin loose.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is in the midst of a breakout year, which is great for fantasy owners. But the Houston Texans are facing an Indianapolis Colts team that allows just 240 yards through the air. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is serviceable, but he's already thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. The Texans are going to continue their conservative game plans against a good pass defense this week, and that limits Hopkins' upside. On another note, Fitzpatrick's beard is almost as bad as his play against the Cowboys last week. Roll snare drum (badumm-chh).
TE: Rob Gronkowski
He was in my "Worth It" section last week; now he's on the avoid list. Look, if you have him, then you're starting him. He had a big game last week and his snap count was nearly doubled. I get that. But the Patriots are playing the Buffalo Bills, who have been surprisingly stingy against opposing tight ends. Buffalo has not allowed a 100-yard performance to an opposing tight end, and has only let up one touchdown to the position. The Bills have a decent defense. While Brady and the Pats offense looked like their old selves last week, I need a few more quality performances before I'm ready to hop back into bed with them full time. I'm not that kind of fantasy owner. You have to wine and dine me a little.
