Cincinnati Reds' ace Johnny Cueto is in the final year of his contract and will earn $10 million in 2015. He told the team he will not continue to negotiate a contract extension beyond Opening Day, so the Reds need to get to work.
According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, there has been "no recent progress on an extension for Cueto with the Reds." Cincinnati will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, April 6, which is an important date because it's the deadline for the team to sign Cueto to an extension. Sure, that's about three months away, but the fact that no recent progress has been made makes many wonder what the Reds' plan is.
Perhaps they're waiting to settle a number of contract situations with their arbitration-eligible players first to see where they stand financially. According to Baseball Reference, the Reds are expected to commit $27.5 million to these candidates, which include starting pitcher Mike Leake, closer Aroldis Chapman, third baseman Todd Frazier, catcher Devin Mesoraco and shortstop Zack Cosart. Cueto is expected to get an immense raise - especially after the Chicago Cubs signed Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million contract - as he enters the final year of his five-year, $36.2 million deal.
That's the first possibility.
The other is that they trade Cueto before the season or before the July 31 deadline. The right-hander is a bargain at $10 million for 2015, especially after posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP last season while leading the National League in innings pitched (243 2/3) and strikeouts (242). He was garnering "heavy interest" during the MLB Winter Meetings, according to FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal, likely because teams known the Reds want to shed salaries. Their estimated payroll is $117.7 million, and that's even after they traded starters Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, both of whom were arbitration-eligible and due big raises.
It was noted earlier this offseason that the Reds could either go into the season with who they have and try to compete, or they could conduct a fire sale and get value for what they have while reducing payroll after a poor 2014 campaign. However, the fire sale notion has witnessed some conflicting moves, as the team sent Latos and Simon packing and then traded prospect starter Ben Lively in exchange for Phillies' outfielder Marlon Byrd. The Reds haven't been clear about their offseason plans except for the fact that they wanted to reduce the payroll by about $17 million. Well, in trading Latos and Simon the team saved about $13.5 million, but they inherited $4 million (the Phillies paid the rest of his 2015 salary) with the acquisition of the 37-year-old Byrd.
The fact of the matter is that the Reds probably can't afford to put another $100 million contract on the books, so it's been all but said Cueto won't be with the team after 2015. Joey Votto ($225 million) and Homer Bailey ($105 million) are each under contract for at least another five seasons and Brandon Phillips still has three years remaining on his $98 million deal. Jay Bruce will also earn $12 million over the next two seasons and has a team option for 2017.
So although Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Reds might not be able to afford him. It can be said the team's management made a mistake by giving Bailey that money, but that won't be acknowledged until Cueto is officially gone. Unless the team has plans to trade Bruce (rumored during this offseason) and/or Phillips (rumored before the trade deadline), it looks like the Reds will either keep Cueto for the season if they're competitive in the NL Central or trade him if they're not (or if they feel they won't be).
Again, this is all speculation, but all remain possibilities because the Reds have a unique situation.