Ahhh, you smell that? It's the candle burning on both ends. It's the fresh printer ink on new contracts. It's the constant clicks of telephone buttons as agents and coaches and general managers scramble frantically. It's the offseason!
The NFL offseason is a time of high excitement and much activity. Perhaps one of the most interesting offseason storylines is the looming free agency of the NFL's leading rusher in 2014, DeMarco Murray.
Murray is coming off the most impressive season of his career. The fourth-year rusher racked up 1,845 yards (almost 500 more than the next closest running back) and 13 touchdowns. He also hauled in 57 passes for 416 yards. That's some high quality, multi-dimensional production right there.
But Dallas must now figure out a way to re-sign both Murray and star wideout Dez Bryant, a task even team owner Jerry Jones has admitted will be a "challenge."
Here's some unsolicited advice for Jones: Prioritize Bryant over Murray, and if need be, let the running back walk (run?) in free agency. Here are a few reasons why that strategy makes sense.
First, the running back position is no longer as valuable as it once was. No running back has been drafted in the first round since Trent Richardson in 2012. That didn't end so well.
Additionally, teams just don't need to spend big bucks at the position anymore. "In 2014, NFL teams spent five percent of the salary cap on running backs, the lowest percentage in the past 15 seasons," ESPN's Lee Singer wrote. Justin Forsett finished fifth in the NFL in rushing for the Baltimore Ravens this season and he was playing on a veteran's minimum contract. The Denver Broncos got big-time production out of undrafted free agent C.J. Anderson this year.
Gone are the days of the archaic "workhorse" running backs. Over the last two years, only two running backs have toted the rock at least 300 times in a season (with Murray being one of them). It's all about a running back by committee these days.
Murray just isn't worth an expensive long-term investment. After all, we are talking about a guy who missed 11 games in his first three seasons due to injury and suffered a broken bone in his hand this year, right? Not only is he an injury risk, but history says he is unlikely to repeat this type of production.
"Murray had 449 touches in 2014, the sixth most in a season in NFL history," Singer wrote. "It was also the first season of his career he played in 16 games. History indicates regression will win out next season and his production will decline."
Singer goes on to explain that of the 42 running backs that recorded at least 400 total touches in a season, 33 of them averaged 590 fewer yards from scrimmage the next season. That's a tremendous drop-off.
And, if push came to shove, the Cowboys could always buck recent running back trends and take a much more affordable option in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft. In fact, Todd McShay has Dallas selecting Wisconsin running back and Heisman runner-up Melvin Gordon with the 27th pick.
Dallas shouldn't just let Murray walk without a fight. But if it comes down to Murray vs. Bryant or Murray demanding a mega deal, Dallas should stay the course of logic and let him go. His injury history, considerable workload and replicable position doesn't warrant top dollar.