Should the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the first overall selection in the 2015 NFL draft?
On the surface, that would seem like a questionable tactic. The Bucs are in desperate need of a quarterback and at No. 1, they'll have their choice of either Florida State's Jameis Winston or Oregon's Marcus Mariota. Look around the NFL; the draft is the best source for potential franchise quarterbacks. Why pass on that opportunity?
But we also know that the draft is an inexact science. For every Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, there's a Ryan Leaf and a JaMarcus Russell. Having the first crack at the top prospects isn't necessarily the most advantageous position. At least, that's how Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders sees it. He believes that Tampa Bay should trade the No. 1 pick in order to collect more draft selections and improve their odds of finding difference-making players.
"The NFL draft is a lottery, and the best strategy is to accumulate as many lottery tickets as possible," Schatz wrote. "Most accurately, since some of those tickets will win more often than others, the best strategy is to accumulate as much draft value as possible. It's not a coincidence that the teams that most often trade back to stock up on picks, such as the Patriots, Packers, and 49ers, are among the most consistently successful franchises in the league.
"Neither Mariota nor Winston has been anointed a once-in-a-lifetime prospect by acclamation. Garrett Grayson or Brett Hundley may have longer odds of making it as NFL starters, but the difference will be more than made up by the additional quality players the Bucs acquire by trading for a big package of draft picks. Or they can continue to build their team and wait for one of the QBs who will go at the top of the 2016 draft, such as Cardale Jones or Christian Hackenberg."
Schatz believes a collection of early-round picks is more valuable than the first overall selection. His approach is non-traditional and not likely to occur, but if Tampa Bay isn't 100 percent sold on Winston or Mariota than it makes some sense. The team could opt to address multiple needs while waiting on a quarterback.
"If the Bucs can get a team like Philadelphia to offer picks with more total draft value than the No. 1 overall selection, they should jump at the deal," Schatz wrote. "They need more than one star player to get back to contention, and more picks means more chances to find those stars."
Schatz makes a compelling argument, though it is doubtful Tampa Bay will make such a move.