Despite dropping eight of their last 10, the Houston Astros (36-28) remain atop the AL West and 2.5 games ahead of the second-place Texas Rangers. The club is expected to be a buyer at the trade deadline if they can keep themselves in the postseason discussion.
It's getting clearer they'll be exploring a deal for a starting pitcher due to the struggles their rotation has endured as of late. Houston has promoted prospects Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez in recent weeks because the team is dealing with injuries to starters Scott Feldman and Brad Peacock, who have combined for 11 starts this season.
"The two new kids make for a tricky evaluation," writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. "In Vince Velasquez and Lance McCullers, you have potential big guns. But they aren't built up for a stretch run, for a season of 180-200 innings. They've came straight from Class AA, and their innings will be monitored because of their ages. Velasquez is 23, McCullers 20."
On top of that, Collin McHugh has been struggling (to say the least) with a 5.08 ERA in 13 starts thus far. The team's only consistent and steady option has been Dallas Keuchel, who is 7-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts, and it's safe to say those statistics will not hold up for the rest of the way.
Their offense ranks eighth in the MLB with 273 runs scored and has been consistently productive throughout the season, leaving many to believe they'll be looking to acquire a starting pitcher if general manager Jeff Luhnow opts to make a deal. He previously noted this season that the "only area that's obvious [to explore acquisitions] is in the rotation."
Luhnow further indicated the Astros are not going to hesitate to improve their chances to win.
"We want to win," Luhnow told Drellich. "I think (owner) Jim (Crane's) committed to it. I'm committed to it. (Manager) A.J. (Hinch is) committed to it. Our entire organization's committed to it. We see an opportunity to win this year, and we're going to take full advantage of it, and we're not going to leave the cupboard with pieces in it that we possibly could have used to get to the playoffs."
So assuming they keep up their winning ways and stay atop the AL West, let's look at a handful of top candidates they might go after in July and the likelihood of acquiring them.
Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies
This possibility has been brought forth by a number of pundits, but Hamels has a 20-team no-trade clause and the Astros are on it. Additionally, his contract is perhaps too excessive for the Astros' low payroll, and they'll have to give up talented prospects on top of that. There's just a lot of factors not in their favor to make such a move at this point, so the odds suggest this won't happen.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
Cueto is a much different story. He's owed $10 million this season and will become a free agent after 2015. A recent MRI also revealed inflammation in his right elbow, which may perhaps drive down the Reds' asking price in any potential deal. Another top-right hander would be a great complement to Keuchel, but big market teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers have recently scouted Cueto. The veteran could look to join a team that will pay him the monstrous contract he wants in the offseason. This is more likely than Hamels, but nothing to get excited about.
David Price, SP, Tigers
This would be one of the coolest things that could happen before the deadline, but it doesn't seem as if the Tigers are intent on moving Price. Yes, he'll be a free agent after this season and the two sides haven't seen any progress on contract extension talks, but Detroit is only three games out of the AL Central lead and Price gives them the best chance to win. The club just got Justin Verlander back and has scouted Cueto, so they might be buyers for another top starter at the deadline. This is also highly unlikely unless something drastic occurs.
Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals
Zimmermann, in my opinion, is the best chance they have to land someone of considerable caliber. Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo said prior to the season he'd be open to trading the right-hander if it made "baseball sense" and it's clear the two sides are headed for a divorce in the offseason. Zimmermann has rejected a number of contract extension offers from Washington and has not performed up to his usual standards (5-4, 3.74 ERA) in his contract year.
However, it was also noted in the offseason that Washington plans to move forward with their "super rotation" in hopes of making a deep postseason run. Despite that, Zimmermann has only 12 2/3 innings of postseason experience and if the Nats can get a nice return for him in a deal they might pounce on that and go with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark (they also have prospects Joe Ross, A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito).
While Strasburg has caught a lot of criticism for his poor pitching this season, let's not forget he still owns a career 3.25 ERA and it could take just a few starts to get back to his old self. He's currently nursing a neck injury and should be back soon. If he can find his rhythm again, there's no question he'd be able to effectively replace Zimmermann.
Scott Kazmir, SP, Athletics
The A's are still not willing to sell (yet), but their 26-39 record indicates they're perhaps too far behind and will need to trade their valuable pieces to keep their arsenal of young assets fresh for subsequent seasons. Among those pieces is Kazmir, who has a 2.79 ERA in 12 starts and is expected to garner interest as long as his shoulder stays healthy. General manager Billy Beane is not afraid to trade within the division if he can get what he wants in return, so this scenario is certainly possible.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, White Sox
In mid-May it was reported the Astros were scouting Samardzija, among other available starting pitchers, but the right-hander is having a bad season (4-4, 4.84 ERA and 1.328 WHIP). Houston may want a more reliable option and it's unknown if the White Sox are willing to trade Samardzija even after their 28-33 start. GM Rick Hahn conducted a makeover this offseason and the club may want to give it time before going in the opposite direction. A move for Samardzija probably has a better chance of happening than one for Hamels, Cueto or Price, but it's not as likely as one for Zimmermann or Kazmir.
