It's been a tough week for the San Diego Padres. On top of losing seven of their last 10 games, the team fired manager Bud Black and officially sent one of their top prospects to the Washington Nationals to complete a trade from the offseason. What's next on the to-do list for general manager A.J. Preller?
At 32-35, the Padres are six games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West and 4.5 games back in the wild-card race. This isn't exactly where ownership hoped the team would be after setting a franchise-record payroll (about $107 million) this offseason. Preller revamped the club's roster and acquired a number of high-profile players, but the team doesn't have much to show for it at this point.
And there might not be much they can do to rebound between now and the trade deadline. Rumors suggest the Padres could sell some players to replenish the farm system that Preller depleted in the offseason after acquiring Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields and others. Take a look here to see what Preller gave up for these stars.
What's troubling is that the Padres have been unable to capitalize even as the second-ranked club in terms of Cluster Luck, which is "a team-level stat proposed by author Joe Peta that attempts to quantify how many more runs than expected a team has scored or allowed by either grouping its hits or hits allowed in close succession or scattering them evenly across innings," writes Ben Lindbergh of Grantland.
San Diego sits at +45.9 runs in the Cluster Luck rankings, which puts them among other top clubs such as the Minnesota Twins (first), Toronto Blue Jays (third), Texas Rangers (fourth), Kansas City Royals (fifth) and St. Louis Cardinals (sixth). For comparison, the Detroit Tigers rank 29th with -32.2 runs in the Cluster Luck standings and they are 34-31. This suggests the problems are beyond the manager. Black was perhaps a scapegoat because his time was wearing thin since he's been with the Padres under three different ownership groups and four general managers (and hadn't made the playoffs since taking over in 2007).
The defense, pitching staff and dominant right-handed lineup are all flaws on this Padres team that a manager can only be so responsible for. Here are some telling stats that show the Padres need improvement:
Defense (Def): 29th in MLB (-25.6)
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): 28th in MLB (-24)
Weighted Runs Created (wRC): 25th in MLB (90)
Starting Rotation ERA: 19th in MLB (4.21)
Bullpen ERA: 21st in MLB (3.74)
Strikeout Total for Hitters: 20th in MLB (124)
So with all that being said, if the Padres can't rebound under new interim manager Pat Murphy, will Preller reverse course and trade some bigger name such as Upton and starters Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy?
"If the team isn't going to contend, the Padres would have an excellent opportunity to recoup some value and set itself up better for the future by swapping assets in late July," writes ESPN Insider Buster Olney. "Andrew Cashner could be attractive to contenders, as well as Ian Kennedy, and maybe even Justin Upton if the Padres are truly out of it; Upton is a free agent at the end of this season. San Diego could help re-stock their farm system by flipping talent like that."
We've already talked about the team possibly moving Upton before the deadline because the two sides failed to reach a contract extension before spring training and he may not want to stay if he feels the future of the Padres isn't going to put him in a good position to win.
It's something to at least keep in mind because it's unlikely Preller is going to let valuable assets walk after the season. And given that the team needs to witness drastic improvements (based on the statistics above) to give themselves a better chance of making the postseason, reality could slowly be setting in for San Diego.
