Recently, Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke released a list of the 10 most overpaid players in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, everyone's favorite football punching bag, Jay Cutler, was on it. Although Cutler wasn't listed as the most overpaid quarterback in the league - that (dis)honor belonged to Eli Manning and his $19.7 million salary cap hit this year - he did land at No. 8.
Jahnke included each player's 2015 salary cap hit, as well as the Jahnke Value Model, which determines how much money a player should be counting against the cap based on their level of play. Comparing the two will give you an idea of how much that player is being overpaid. Here was Cutler's entry.
"2015 cap hit: $16.5 million
2015 JVM: $7.4 million
Value differential: $9.1 million
"Cutler was one of the most disappointing players in the NFL last season, after cashing in with a big contract in the offseason," Jahnke wrote. "Typically, even the worst starting QBs can find success in the NFL when they aren't under pressure, but Cutler defied that in 2014: When Cutler was free of pressure, he managed only 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 16-to-13 touchdown to interception rate. It wasn't any prettier when he had to face the blitz.
"It would have been a salary-cap nightmare for the Bears to let go of Cutler this year, and even next year it wouldn't lead to much in the way of cap savings unless they trade him. Ideally for Chicago, Cutler can return to being a good but not great quarterback this season. Regardless of how he plays, the Bears are stuck with him for at least one or two more seasons."
While it's true that Cutler set a career high in completion percentage (66.0) and passing touchdowns (28) last year (not to mention suffering more than a few key drops from his wide receivers), Chicago's offense still badly underachieved. The Bears finished 2014 just 21st in yards-per-game (327.1) and 23rd in points (19.9) and Cutler led all QBs in interceptions.
Cutler still possesses considerable arm talent and has the potential for a good season. But at this point, it seems as if his $127 million contract may have been a bit of an over pay.
