Researchers from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that the frequency and severity of heat waves are expected to double by 2020 and four times by 2040.
Severe summer heat waves such as those that hit the United States in 2012 and Australia in 2009 have become increasingly common and according to researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, this phenomenon will increase drastically over the next 30 years, irrespective of the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere.
According to new predictions, the frequency and severity of heat waves are expected to double by 2020 and by four times by 2040. After 2040, the frequency and severity of heat waves will depend on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by human activates. By 2040, if the level of carbon dioxide is low, the frequency of heat waves may stabilize. Else, a one percent increase in heat waves will occur.
"We find that up until 2040, the frequency of monthly heat extremes will increase several fold, independent of the emission scenario we choose to take. Mitigation can, however, strongly reduce the number of extremes in the second half of the 21st century," lead author of the study, Dim Coumou, said in a press release.
The heat waves that hit the U.S. in 2012 and Australia in 2009 were classified as three-sigma events and the heat waves predicted belong to the five-sigma categories. Researchers of the study also predicted that under a high emission scenario, 85 percent of global land will be hit by three-sigma events while 60 percent of global land will be hit by five-sigma events by 2100.
"A good example of a recent three-sigma event is the 2010 heat wave in Russia, which expanded over a large area stretching from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea. In the Moscow region the average temperature for the whole of July was around 7°C warmer than normal - it was around 25°C. In some parts, temperatures above 40°C were measured," continued Coumou.
Tropical regions are expected to witness the strongest increase in the severity and frequency of heat waves. These heat waves can be extremely damaging to ecosystems and societies. They cause heat-related deaths, an increase in number of forest fires and loss of agricultural land.
