Here are two things we know: the Chicago Cubs need starting rotation depth and the San Diego Padres are in a predicament in terms of whether they will be buyers and sellers at the trade deadline.
Here's another thing we know: these two teams can help one another if the Padres opt to sell within the next month.
Nothing is set in stone. In fact, everything is far from that and merely subject to rumors, but the trade deadline is rapidly approaching and the best way to make sense of it all is by connecting the dots. The Cubs and Padres can do a number of things, but it's clear what the most prudent decision for both teams would be. So let's take a look at a potential trade between these two.
San Diego (37-41) recently fired manager Bud Black and sits 6.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead. All hope is not yet lost, but based on injuries and uncharacteristic performances from some of their players, it's certainly possible they fall even further behind in the division/postseason race. As a result, the team is taking a look at all scenarios.
"The Padres are going day-to-day," FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal said over the weekend. "They've discussed both buying and selling ... if they sold, they could move big pieces: Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel."
However, Rosenthal also noted the Padres would have a hard time "recouping a lot of what they lost in their trades" in dealing those players and might not want to move some of the bigger names. They would risk taking a significant step back next season, which is when they host the All-Star Game.
If the Pads are in a spot where regaining the ground they've lost appears to be more than they can handle, they could look to trade other pieces to replenish their farm system after general manager A.J. Preller shipped away a lot of young talent in the offseason. A couple of starters could do just that in a deal with Chicago.
"If San Diego becomes sellers, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner would be interesting possibilities," writes ESPN Insider Buster Olney.
Especially for the Cubs.
Why?
Because the Cubs don't want to break the bank by trading for a starter such as Cole Hamels, nor do they want to acquire an expensive impending free agent. Last week it was reported Chicago's ideal acquisition would be a "young established starter with at least two or three years of club control left." It was also reported the Cubs expressed interest in Mets' left-hander Jon Niese, but he's owed a decent amount of money and Chicago would "probably prefer someone better," Rosenthal said.
Ross is under club control through the 2017 season and Cashner is through 2016. They're both 28 years old and would add solid depth to another rotation without being a financial burden. Chicago won't surrender one of their top young talent (Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber), but they have plenty to offer if the Padres were to consider trading one of these two. And it's pretty clear Chicago's need for a starter is immediate, which is something Preller could take advantage of because the trade values of Ross and Cashner are probably the highest they'll be at this present moment.
"The questions about this rotation start with Jon Lester and won't end even if the Cubs make a blockbuster trade at the July 31 deadline. That's just the nature of pitching," writes Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago.
"But the arms race will be the No. 1 priority for Theo Epstein's front office with the Cubs not knowing right now what they're going to get from their $155 million ace, Kyle Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada."
The Cubs are intent on signing a big name in the offseason rather than giving up assets for one right now and hoping to retain them beyond 2015. Acquiring Ross or Cashner would allow Chicago to perhaps keep their most coveted prospects, save money for 2016 and have an option in the rotation for at least another season.
"Unless the Cubs simply go big for a big-name pitcher like Cole Hamels -- and that's not likely -- expect a smaller addition," writes Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. "It should help keep them in the wild-card race, which is about all you can ask for while facing a double digit deficit in the division."
San Diego might not be willing to part ways with Ross or Cashner, which Preller made clear in the offseason, but it's also going to be hard to lock them up for the long-term after adding so much to their payroll in the offseason. The salaries of Upton, Jaoquin Benoit and Ian Kennedy will be coming off the books, but Shields, Kimbrel, Melvin Upton Jr. and Matt Kemp make up about $70 million of the 2016 payroll. If the Padres hope to sign Upton long-term, then that will likely add another $20-plus million annual salary to the books and further limit what they can do financially. Catcher Derek Norris and first baseman Yonder Alonso are also arbitration-eligible this offseason and due for a raise.
Nonetheless, this is just something to think about. It will be hard for the Cubs to find what they want for the price at which they desire, and it will be difficult for the Padres to part ways with one of these starters (unless the team knows for fact it'll be unable to sign them long-term).
Both teams will be active at the trade deadline in some capacity and it's worth noting they could be partners in a potential deal.
