There's only one month left to go before the first Republican presidential debate, meaning most of the 16 GOP candidates are making last-minute pushes to boost their ratings and secure a spot at Fox News Channel's 10-person debate on Aug. 6 in Cleveland.
While Fox hasn't yet outlined the specific qualifying criteria, the network said it will be averaging the five most recent national polls "conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques ... leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET," reported Politico.
The 10 candidates with the highest poll averages will be invited to participate in the debate, and nearly every candidate, with the exception of a few consistent top performers, is in danger of failing to make the cut.
It's unclear which polls Fox will use to decide who to invite, but if it were held today, Donald Trump would likely be selected to participate, while two sitting governors, a U.S. senator, the first female CEO of a Fortune 50 company and the runner-up for the 2012 GOP nomination could easily be excluded depending on which polls are used. Which is why Bloomberg suggests that methodologically, the debate selection process is "drawing at straws" and could result in a "campaign-within-a-campaign, with very different imperatives from the ones the primary process is designed to produce."
A number of candidates are teetering on either side of the top 10 bubble. Rick Perry and Chris Christie are currently inside the bubble, but Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki appear to be on the outside, according to Politico.
Ken Goldstein, a professor of politics at the University of San Francisco and a polling analyst for Bloomberg, said "a microscope has not yet been invented that enables us to determine the difference between the 10th-place person and the 11th-place person. That difference, literally, will be less than half of a percentage point. And maybe even less than that."
To cut down on the number of debates held in the 2012 cycle - more than two dozen - the Republican National Committee is sponsoring nine debates through March 1. Candidates have been warned that if they attend unsanctioned debates, they will be excluded from official events.
Without a spot in the debates, a candidate might as well call it quits. As candidates become increasingly desperate to improve their poll standings in the days leading up to the debate, campaigns hoping to at least temporarily boost their standings into the top 10 could start taking extreme actions: "news-making positions; dumping opposition research on opponents; inundating e-mail inboxes; and blitzing the Sunday television circuit, late-night talk shows, conservative radio airwaves, and cable news programs. Instead of spending resources on political operations in early-voting states, candidates may blow that cash on national TV ads to boost name recognition at the eleventh hour," Bloomberg writes.
Other candidates could decide to start a nationwide advertising campaign on a network such as Fox, though that approach is cost-prohibitive for many hopefuls on the bubble, so most will turn to earned media to boost their name and standing on the ballot test, according to Politico.
But getting more attention than Trump could be a challenge, as his controversial immigration comments have commandeered the attention of pundits and outlets. Trump was interviewed more on Fox last month than any other candidate, Politico noted. "I wouldn't be surprised if you see other candidates start throwing bigger bombs and becoming more incendiary to get some more attention," one GOP presidential campaign aide told the news outlet.
Kasich took one of the most unusual strategies by waiting until the last minute to enter the race. However, his late campaign announcement, expected to come on July 21, could "generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump" into the top 10, Politico said.
With 10 candidates on the debate stage, though, in-depth discussion of important issues could be inhibited, Princeton political historian Julian Zelizer told USA Today. "These are debates for the age of Twitter. It's not great for democracy, but it's good TV."
According to RealClearPolitics' poll averages from the four most recent, here is what the debate stage would look like if held today:
1) Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a poll average of 17.3 percent
2) Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, 10.5 percent
3) Retired Neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 9.5 percent
4) Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9.3 percent
5) Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 7.8 percent
6) Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 7.3 percent
7) Billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump, 6.5 percent
8) Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 4 percent
9) Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 3.8 percent
10) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 3.3 percent
