Detroit Tigers' general manager Dave Dombrowski has a penchant for making big trades. However, the team is underachieving this season and sits seven games behind the first-place Kansas City Royals. Will Dombrowski change course at this year's trade deadline?
Injuries have significantly affected what the Tigers have been able to do this season. Justin Verlander made his first start on June 13 and has struggled ever since; Victor Martinez has played in only 52 games; Joe Nathan was lost for the season in April; and now Miguel Cabrera will miss six weeks with a strained calf.
On top of that, the team designated Joba Chamberlain and Tom Gorzelanny for assignment this month and optioned Shane Greene to Triple-A back in June (although he may return this weekend). Fellow pitchers Alfredo Simon and Anibal Sanchez have not performed well at all this year, leaving David Price to carry the load - and let's not forget he could be gone after the season.
The trade rumors will be plentiful between now and July 31 thanks to endless speculation. One of those rumors focuses on the Tigers being sellers at the trade deadline.
Wait, what?
If one were to look at the Tigers' situation from a front office perspective, it could potentially be the best decision for them depending on what unfolds in the next few weeks. Price, Simon, Chamberlain, Gorzelanny, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Avila and Rajai Davis will be free agents after 2015 and there's no guarantee Detroit retains Price or Cespedes because they'll likely garner interest from many other MLB clubs.
Right now, the Tigers are 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild card spot, but there's fierce competition in the tight American League race. If Cabrera's absence drastically affects the Tigers' positioning in the standings over the next few weeks, Dombrowski may be inclined to sell.
"There are arguments on both sides: They can make a strong case for buying, as the AL is so wide open this year; all 15 teams were within seven games of a playoff spot after Monday's games," writes Tony Paul of The Detroit News. "But if the Tigers sell, they have the assets to restock their depleted farm system in such a hurry, it would surprise nobody if they're in position for a World Series run as early as next summer.
"This decision doesn't need to be made today, but time is running out."
Although ESPN Insider Jim Bowden believes Detroit will be buyers at the deadline, he could see the situation quickly shifting gears.
"Just about everything has gone wrong for the Tigers, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Justin Verlander's ineffectiveness and the bullpen again having problems. With staff ace David Price a free agent at season's end, the Tigers better not lose much ground between now and July 31 or they could become surprise sellers."
The Tigers rank fifth in the MLB with 382 runs scored, but their team ERA (4.24) is 26th. Problems with the starting rotation and bullpen have characterized the club's woes, but with an endless trade market consisting of starters and relievers, Dombrowski can easily replenish those areas. He'll just have to be confident in his team's ability to perform down the stretch and stay healthy.
It won't be easy for Dombrowski to rely on either of those aspects, but there's also the fact that the Tigers' window to win a World Series is closing. Their starting rotation has a good chance of being disbanded at the end of the year and it's not like Cabrera, Martinez or Ian Kinsler are getting any younger.
At the same time, while J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos and Anthony Gose provide hope for the future, their farm system is among the weakest in the MLB and could use some stability.
"Will they be buyers around the non-waiver trade deadline? Or will they be sellers?" asks James Schmehl of MLive.com.
"It's a tough call.
"The Tigers have plenty of trade chips at their disposal. David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, Rajai Davis -- they're all soon-to-be free agents. And more importantly, they'd certainly draw heavy interest on the trade market from a number of teams."
If they miss the postseason, it's likely their chances of re-signing Price and Cespedes drastically decline. If Dombrowski doesn't feel confident that he can retain one of these two with a contract extension during the season or a big offer in the offseason, don't be surprised if he opts to sell before the deadline especially if the team falls further behind Kansas City.
