It's pretty crazy we're still talking about this a year later, but here we are. Philadelphia Phillies' ace Cole Hamels still hasn't been moved despite the high demand for starting pitching in the MLB. Where will he be when the trade deadline passes at 4:00 p.m. ET on July 31?
Hamels is the best trade piece the Phillies possess and he's expected to bring a considerable return in a deal that will help expedite their rebuilding process. However, the team is undergoing a change in management and Andy MacPhail will take over as team president after the season. He'll join the organization as a consultant in the meantime, which has rumors swirling that general manager Ruben Amaro might not be calling the shots before the trade deadline with so many important decisions to be made.
However, Amaro has been in trade discussions with other teams for a long time now and he's been putting (or at least trying to put) the club in a position to move their most valuable pieces at the deadline. He knows he can't do what he did last year and hold onto veteran players whose trade values are peaking.
But the addition of MacPhail raises questions.
"Are they prepared to move fast enough to make deals involving Cole Hamels and others, considering their recent front-office makeover?" asks ESPN Insider Buster Olney. "Last year, they did not make deadline deals, setting back their reconstruction even more."
And if they don't deal him this month, they face disadvantages on the trade market in the coming months.
"Waiting until the winter to strike a deal would be a mistake," writes Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "The 31-year-old lefthander's value in the offseason would take a hit because of a stacked free-agent starting pitching class. If the Phillies don't cash in their top bargaining chip before 4 p.m. on July 31, their next-best opportunity to trade him would be an entire year later, in the days and hours leading to next July's trade deadline."
The demand for starting pitching around the MLB is perhaps at an all-time high right now and the prospect of acquiring Hamels is attractive to other teams since he can be controlled through at least 2018 (he has a team option for 2019). And now that rumors suggested Phillies' executives are becoming more "realistic" with what they'll get in return for Hamels, signs point to him being gone before July 31.
Let's take a look at the top three destinations for the left-hander.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
While some may have just read that and x'ed out of the article, I'd like to thank the rest of you for hearing out this scenario. Back in April the Pirates' pursuit of Hamels was speculated because rumors unearthed that they made a run at David Price during last year's the trade deadline. They do have a formidable top of the rotation cast with Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett, but will that be enough to get them past other top NL teams in the playoffs?
Cole has two career postseason starts, Liriano has three and Burnett has eight. However, Burnett, who has the most experience, owns a 6.37 ERA in the postseason and general manager Neal Huntington may not feel confident with him as the third starter in a five-game series. The Pirates have the second-best record in the MLB (behind only the division rival St. Louis Cardinals, who lead them by 2.5 games) and they have one of the most balanced rosters.
Pittsburgh has the prospects to add Hamels, so the only issue remains inheriting the money on his contract (at the very least about $83.5 million through 2018). The club has $16 million coming off the books this offseason (Burnett will hit free agency) and recent rumors found the Pirates could chase a starter before the deadline.
Hamels could be the guy if the Pirates think this is their year.
2. New York Yankees
At the onset of 2015 it didn't look like this would be atop general manager Brian Cashman's list of priorities, even though they were linked to Hamels in trade rumors throughout the offseason). But they probably weren't expecting CC Sabathia to witness his career-worst season as a starter or Nathan Eovaldi to be as inconsistent as he's been.
Additionally, Masahiro Tanaka's mysterious health status still remains an issue while Michael Pineda (3.64 ERA) has shown flaws after his tremendous (but short) campaign in 2014. Starting pitching depth has proven to be perhaps the most important quality for a team to have, and the Yankees do not have that right now.
Sure, Adam Warren could be an option if Sabathia's performance becomes intolerable for manager Joe Girardi, but we've seen how pitchers get affected when going back and forth between the starting rotation and bullpen. Prospects Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell are nearing their MLB debuts and could get the call in September, but New York will need a game changer in the postseason.
They sit atop the AL East and have surprised the MLB with the second-most prolific offense this season. A move for another starter almost seems inevitable.
"There are a number of contenders chasing Hamels, and the Yankees would be one of those teams he would accept a trade to for multiple reasons, but mostly because he knows the Yankees will put themselves in position to contend for the length of his contract, which runs through 2018," Kevin Kernan of the New York Post wrote back in late June.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post doesn't see such a deal happening, but we can never be so sure given the current state of affairs in the wide-open American League.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
I'm sorry that this is anti-climactic, but what am I supposed to do?
There couldn't be a more obvious destination for Hamels considering all of the factors involved here: the Dodgers have more than enough prospect depth to make the deal; they can easily absorb the remaining dollars on Hamels' contract; Brandon McCarthy is out until mid-2016; Hyun-jin Ryu is recovering from shoulder surgery; right now the rotation beyond Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke is a toss up; Greinke is likely to opt out of his deal after the season while Brett Anderson will hit free agency; and Hamels is from San Diego and previously said he'd prefer to be traded to a destination that is closer to his family (his wife's family is from St. Louis, which is another preference).
Another thing is that there are a number of suitors pursuing Cincinnati Reds' starter Johnny Cueto (who the Dodgers like), which is going to increase his trade value. It's unlikely president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi would want to bet in a bidding war over a two-month rental when they can just sign him in the offseason if they really want him.
A rotation consisting of Kershaw, Greinke and Hamels would put the first-place Dodgers in the best possible position to win the NL West and make a serious run at their first World Series title since 1988.
Aside from these three clubs, the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and a few others have been linked to Hamels in some capacity.
We'll know for sure where he's going in just a couple of weeks.
