The Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are three obvious sellers even though the trade market has yet to materialize. Reds' ace Johnny Cueto will more than likely be dealt, but where is he going to land?
Cincinnati has yet to declare themselves sellers for a few reasons. First, it was said the team didn't want to trade anyone before mid-July because they were hosting the 2015 All-Star Game and that may have not boded well for the home crowd. Additionally, at the beginning of July the Reds weren't too far off from a wild-card spot at 36-41, but they dropped six of their last nine and now sit 15.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and 7.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card race.
According to recent rumors, the fire sale is underway.
#Reds are prepared to trade prospective free agents Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake now that All-Star Game is over, sources say. @FOXSports
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 17, 2015
"The [Reds] are going to be a team that dumps everybody," Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports said on the Baseball Tonight Podcast. "Johnny Cueto is gone. Mike Leake is gone. Marlon Byrd is gone ... I think Jay Bruce is gone too."
Cueto, although he'll be a free agent after the season, is their biggest trade chip because he's been one of the best pitchers in the MLB in recent seasons. He's expected to land a mammoth contract in free agency, so the team that acquires him can perhaps have an advantage in retaining him after the season.
There are many contenders looking for a pitcher like Cueto to propel themselves into the postseason and hopefully make a deep run. Let's take a look at HNGN's most likely landing spots for the Reds' ace.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
In our last "Top Three Destinations" column we had the Dodgers being the No. 1 landing spot for Phillies' ace Cole Hamels. We still believe that to be the case due to the massive demand for Cueto among a number of other clubs. It's not very likely president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is going to get in a bidding war and risk giving up more valuable prospects for a two-month rental when they can probably sign Cueto to a big contract in the offseason.
The next two teams on this list are more desperate to make the postseason and lack stability atop their rotations, which is why it's expected they more aggressively pursue the right-hander.
However, the Dodgers are interested in Cueto and have both the prospects and money to acquire him. Beyond Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the Dodgers' rotation is by no means reliable. Another marquee starter could make them the favorites to win the National League and depending on the asking price for other starters, Cueto could still be a top target of Los Angeles - especially if they think he'd be willing to remain in Dodger blue beyond 2015.
2. Houston Astros
The Astros will be buyers and their top priority is acquiring a starting pitcher. They are one of three teams said to be "aggressively" pursuing Cueto and they certainly have the resources to pry him from the Reds. However, they will have competition on the market since other contenders are in need of starting pitching. Cueto isn't owed that much the rest of the way (his salary this season was only $10 million), which is another factor that will increase his trade value.
Beyond Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, it's clear the Astros need more depth in their rotation. Additionally, it's unknown how much longer McCullers (and Vincent Velasquez) will remain in the rotation because he's a rookie and there's likely an innings limit placed on him for this year. They'll be getting Scott Feldman back this weekend, but he was struggling badly before hitting the disabled list back in May.
The Los Angeles Angels surpassed Houston in the AL West just before the All-Star break after the Astros dropped eight of 10 dating back to July 3. They remain in a tight division race and wild-card race, so an upgrade before the deadline is essential. But the addition of another starter might not be all general manager Jeff Luhnow is looking to make.
"We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back," he told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. "But we're continuing (to look at) everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense."
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays' general manager Alex Anthopoulos said he'd much rather prefer to acquire someone under club control beyond 2015, but there aren't many of those on the market. The ones that might be available will not be cheap and Anthopoulos obviously needs to keep in mind the future of the organization.
On the other hand, Toronto hasn't made the playoffs in 21 years and they have a great chance to do so in 2015. They have the best offense in the MLB, but their pitching staff is one of the worst. Their overall ERA (4.18) ranks 23rd and their starter's ERA (4.46) ranks 24th. The loss of Marcus Stroman in spring training and Aaron Sanchez's recent injury has affected the rotation's performance. Drew Hutchison and R.A. Dickey have not been effective, which is a big reason the Blue Jays will be looking to upgrade at the deadline. Felix Doubront is also their No. 5 right now.
Cueto has been on their radar for quite a while and the Jays are one of the other three teams looking to land him right now. A number of other options exist, but Cueto perhaps gives them the best chance to make a playoff push this year and allow Anthopoulos to worry about solving the team's long-term rotation issues in the offseason when several top starters hit the open market.
It's also likely the Reds would like to get Cueto out of the NL before the deadline in hopes of increasing his chances of signing with an AL team in the offseason. Anthopoulos is an aggressive GM and has plenty of prospects to offer the Reds in such a deal.
"Look for the Blue Jays to be in on the top-of-the-market arms available this month (Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija ... probably not Hamels, though)," writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. "And if they pull one off, they can and will win the wide-open AL East."
Other teams interested in Cueto include the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, so don't be surprised if any of them swoop in and strike a deal.
