As we go through each category of available players, it seems as if this could be the craziest trade deadline week in MLB history. Today we look over some closers that might be available, including some of the game's best: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Jonathan Papelbon.
And just in case you were wondering, here are some other notable names that will likely be available in a trade, according to rumors:
Francisco Rodriguez (MIL), Tyler Clippard (OAK), Brad Boxberger (TB), Koji Uehara (BOS), John Axford (COL), Joaquin Benoit (SD), Neal Cotts (MIL), Jim Johnson (ATL), LaTroy Hawkins (COL), Brad Ziegler (ARZ), Junichi Tazawa (BOS), Charlie Furbush (SEA), Zach Duke (CWS), Jeremy Jeffress (MIL), Jake McGee (TB), among others.
The hype has mostly surrounded Chapman, Kimbrel and Papelbon because they've been the best closers in the MLB over the years and can all be controlled beyond the 2015 season. Additionally, their current clubs are not built to win in the foreseeable future, which suggests the chances of them being traded are as high as anyone's.
So let's take a look at where these three arms are most likely to land before Friday at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Aroldis Chapman
Stats: 1.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 74 strikeouts and 20 saves in 42 games (41 2/3 innings)
Top destination: Washington Nationals
One could argue for the Los Angeles Dodgers as well, but the Nats' interest in Chapman goes as far back as June when they initiated preliminary talks with the Reds regarding a trade for the left-hander. Additionally, Washington's bullpen is not lights-out, aside from the dominance of Drew Storen, but one guy will not be enough to carry the team in late-inning situations down the stretch.
Cincinnati was scouting Nationals' prospect Erick Fedde last week, which fueled speculation the two sides could be moving closer to a deal. However, ESPN's Jayson Stark says the "price tag for Chapman is higher than any other closer in the sport" and that the Reds want a return "similar to the Johnny Cueto package, if not higher." The Royals shipped three left-handed prospect pitchers to Cincinnati for Cueto on Sunday, and while the Nationals definitely have the ammo to make such a deal, general manager Mike Rizzo could be hesitant to part ways with that much talent for less than a year and a half of a closer.
Nonetheless, the Nats seem to be leading the talks right now and need back end bullpen help, so this is Chapman's top destination for us.
Craig Kimbrel
Stats: 2.75 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 55 strikeouts and 29 saves in 41 games (39 1/3 innings)
Top destination: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays and Nats could be interchangeable top destinations for Chapman and Kimbrel, but considering the Padres asked Washington for shortstop prospect Trea Turner - who San Diego traded to the Nationals in the offseason - in a deal for Kimbrel, it's less likely Rizzo is inclined to make a deal with them.
At this point the Blue Jays have been linked to every top reliever on the market (Papelbon, Clippard and Rodriguez as well), but they'd really make a statement if they landed Kimbrel. Toronto has a bunch of money coming off the books in the offseason and would be able to take on Kimbrel's contract (nearly $30 million through 2017), especially since they'll be competing for the postseason in 2016 as well (worst-case scenario is they trade Kimbrel if things aren't working out before the deadline next year).
"What we know for sure is that [Kimbrel would] fill their need for a stabilizing force in the back end," writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. "Aaron Sanchez's move to the bullpen is more of a short-term solution, because his future, it appears, is in the rotation."
Brett Cecil has come around as of late (0 ER, 8 H, 3 BB in his last 9 2/3 innings of work) and if that holds up, a back-end bullpen crew of Cecil, Roberto Osuna and Kimbrel would certainly help the Jays preserve late-inning leads and make a stronger push to end their 21-year postseason drought.
Blue Jays' general manager Alex Anthopoulos can also work to acquire a starter (James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross) from San Diego in a package deal for Kimbrel since rotation depth is atop the list of Toronto's needs.
"The Padres have called other teams and have made him available," ESPN Insider Buster Olney said. "I've heard two things. Some teams think the Padres are trying to move his contract and another general manager thinks they're only going to sell him if they can get a good return and move money in other ways."
Considering Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton Jr. are pretty much untradeable, it seems more and more likely the Pads will need to move Kimbrel. The Jays have the prospects to make it happen, but they'll have to figure out a way to make the financials work this season.
Jonathan Papelbon
Stats: 1.59 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and 17 saves in 37 games (39 2/3 innings)
Top destination: Chicago Cubs
Papelbon has been linked to Chicago in trade rumors for two reasons. First off, he played for the Boston Red Sox when Theo Epstein was general manager, which provides a significant connection as Epstein is now the president of baseball operations for the Cubs. Also, manager Joe Maddon is currently instituting a closer-by-committee system with Jason Motte, Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, with Rafael Soriano eventually being worked into the mix. Justin Grimm is emerging as more of a back end reliever as well. Motte has gotten a majority of the save opportunities of late because he's been less erratic than Rondon and Strop.
But there's still a clear need for an established ninth-inning arm.
"The Blue Jays and Nationals are seen as the two most likely destinations for controversial but consistent veteran Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon," writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. "However, a third team has emerged, with the Cubs also in the mix as the July 31 trade deadline approaches...
"Papelbon in the Phillies' trip to Wrigley Field this week chatted up the Cubs executives who know him well, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, though the Cubs are focusing more on rotation and positional help at the moment."
Yes, they are mostly focused on improving the starting rotation and acquiring a left-handed outfield bat. However, they've been talking to the Phillies as of late regarding a Cole Hamels trade. Perhaps they can work out a package deal that includes both Hamels ($77 million through 2018) and Papelbon (about $18 million through 2016) to take all of that salary off of Philadelphia's hands. Such a proposal could potentially lower the Phillies' asking price in terms of talent/prospects.
While some rumors suggest Chapman, Kimbrel and Papelbon could all stay put for various reasons, it's hard to believe that will be the case due to the demand for capable relievers around the MLB. We could see the game's top closers on the move within the next four days.
