When it comes to the top tier of fantasy football quarterbacks, who do you think of? Probably some combination of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. One guy you rarely think of in that category is Eli Manning.
Manning finished 10th in standard scoring fantasy points among QBs last season and currently has an average draft position (ADP) of 13th at the position, according to ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner. That means fantasy football owners aren't viewing him as a weekly starter in either 10 or 12 team leagues. Now that's just crazy.
Manning has his flaws; he'll throw you out of one or two game per season with killer turnovers. But he's also good enough to keep you in the hunt every other week on the schedule. In fact, he has top five fantasy QB potential heading into the 2015 season. Here's why.
1. Pass Happy Giants
Manning set a career high in pass attempts (601) last season, 22 more than his previous high. The Giants, just like the rest of the NFL, are trending more towards aerial-oriented offensive attacks.
From Weeks 0 through 17, Manning led the NFL in pass attempts per game (41.8). That's more than Matt Ryan (40.38) and Brees (40.44).
No Manning gets Odell Beckham Jr. for a full 16 games instead of just 12 like last season. You don't think that will translate into another 600-pass attempt season?
2. Vertical Improvement
Joyner defines vertical pass production as "points scored on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield" and it is crucial for upper echelon fantasy QBs. Manning was solid in this department last year (95 vertical passing points, ninth among quarterbacks).
But Joyner also defines stretch vertical pass area as a measure of production on throws 20 or more yards downfield. Manning did not fare so well in this category, ranking 28th in the league.
However, Beckham can once again help in this category if he stays healthy for a full 16 games. Missing four contests to open the season last year likely cost Manning 15-20 points. Tack that extra production on Manning's season totals, along with everything a healthy Victor Cruz can provide, and it's an entirely different story.
3. RB Changes
Rashad Jennings had just three games last season in which he topped 4.0 yards-per-carry and just one game in which he rushed for at least 100 yards. Now he certainly wasn't terrible, and he compensated by being more active in the passing game than originally anticipated, but the Giants knew they needed help in the backfield. That's why they signed former New England Patriots RB Shane Vereen.
Vereen totaled a tidy 56 fantasy points on passing plays last season. Were he to repeat that total, it would add 40 or more fantasy points to Manning's output. For his career, Vereen has averaged 36 catches per season. It's a fair bet that he'll top that total in 2015, helping Manning's cause in the process.
4. Turnover Woes Decreasing?
Manning threw more frequently than ever before last season yet still managed to toss the second-fewest interceptions (14) of his career. Joyner adds that he also had the second-lowest interception rate (2.3 percent) of his career.
Past success isn't always an indicator of future success. But it's a good sign that Manning is taking better care of the football and making better decisions in general, especially as he enters a contract year.
Conclusion
I'll let Joyner handle this:
"Manning ranked sixth in quarterback fantasy points from Weeks9-17 and was only 33 points away from a top-five fantasy quarterback ranking for the course of the entire season. Add the production upgrades he could see via downfield passing and throws to running backs to a low interceptions rate and a fairly easy schedule, and it should mean he closes that 33-point gap. In other words, don't be surprised if Eli Manning claims a spot among the top five fantasy quarterbacks in the 2015 season."
