Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer may be trying to pump the brakes on the overflowing preseason positivity surrounding the franchise, but that hasn't stopped nearly every other NFL pundit and prognosticator from picking the Vikes as a suddenly popular potential playoff entrant. While it's hard to envision a Minnesota team that finished last season 7-9 and in third place in the tough-as-nails NFC North reaching the postseason, nothing is really outside the realm of possibility, especially in an NFL world where parity has become the name of the game. Plus, with the expected development of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the return of Adrian Peterson and the drafting of Trae Waynes and Eric Kendricks there's simply no doubting that the Vikings suddenly look much stronger. Thus, a playoff berth really doesn't seem that farfetched.
A Super Bowl berth, on the other hand, seems pretty ridiculous. Unless, that is, if you're ESPN's KC Joyner. Joyner penned an article Thursday touting the Vikings as a possible Super Bowl sleeper next season. Let's check out his reasoning...
Bridgewater
"Bridgewater had the type of rookie campaign that, in previous years, would have led to an offensive rookie of the year award. From Weeks 13-17, Bridgewater was tied for the league lead in completion percentage (72.1 percent) and his 16.5 vertical yards per attempt (11 yards or more) ranked first overall. He also ranked 11th in Total QBR and set a record for the highest completion percentage by a rookie attempting 40 or more passes in a single game. Throw in his 0.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR, which measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team), tied for third-lowest, and it means Bridgewater could be on his way to competing with the top young quarterbacks in the NFL."
-Joyner's got a good point about Bridgewater playing well beyond his years last season. But that was the book on him coming out of Louisville - that he was a good decision-maker and well-suited to tossing the ball all over the yard, but that his upside could be limited. The biggest test will be if Bridgewater's able to build on a promising, if ultimately disappointing, rookie campaign. He struggled without a truly effective running game last season and it's difficult to tell if he's a player who will develop beyond his present state. Of course, there's one big addition that could go a long way toward making that happen...
Peterson
"Minnesota would have the makings of a powerful rushing attack even without Peterson. The Vikings finished tied for eighth in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric, and Jerick McKinnon ranked fifth in good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), which measures a ball carrier's productivity when the defense isn't able to disrupt a rushing attempt. The potential benefit of this for Peterson is that the Vikings don't need him to rack up 2,500 rushing yards on his own; they just need him to move an already-strong ground game into elite status."
-The Vikes have already intimated that Peterson's set for a big workload next season. McKinnon is fast and he should provide a good change of pace for Peterson, but the future Hall of Famer will again be the bell cow in Minnesota. He may not reach 2,500 yards, but there's no doubting the Vikes will give him ample opportunity to rack up yards and add to his already considerable career total. If he can stay healthy and get good blocking, the Vikes run game really should be difficult to stop, potentially opening up the offense for...
Mike Wallace
"Wallace didn't impact Miami's vertical passing game as much as expected, but one thing he did do well was score touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, only 10 wide receivers tallied more receiving scores than Wallace's 15. Last year, the Vikings ranked tied for 19th in passing touchdowns to wide receivers (13). Wallace's arrival makes a top-10 finish in that category a legitimate possibility, especially if he's able to again become a difference-maker deep."
-It's hard to see Joyner's point here. Pointing to wide receiver - especially deep-threat receivers - who score touchdowns is like pointing to a quarterback like Tim Tebow and saying, "all he does is win." Technically true. Not dependable or sustainable as a means to consistent success. Yes, Wallace is still a legitimate deep threat despite a down couple of years in Miami. But he's a mostly one-dimensional player and while he could explode next season in an offense with a strong run game that allows Bridgewater to take some quality shots down the field, it's unlikely he'll suddenly expand his game and see something of a career resurgence. What's more likely, from this vantage, is that Charles Johnson continues his development and becomes Bridgewater's best friend. The wildcard in all of this, of course, is Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has a golden opportunity to wreak havoc on opposing defenses next year. If he can, look out.
In the end, it's probably fair to consider the Vikings a very, very deep sleeper as a Super Bowl pick. Will they be good? Yes. Can they make the playoffs? Yes. Beyond that, it's really anyone's guess.
