I wouldn't say that it's particularly easy to be a Miami Dolphins fan. The organization hasn't made the playoffs since the 2008 season, and they haven't enjoyed a playoff victory since the 2000 campaign. What's worse, the team has faded down the stretch in the playoff hunt over the last three seasons. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is just 11-15 in the months of November and December. He'll need to do more if Miami hopes to compete in 2015.
But ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner thinks the Dolphins are a Super Bowl sleeper, and it all starts with Tannehill's improved decision-making.
"Tannehill has come a long way in three pro seasons," Joyner wrote. "As a rookie, he ranked tied for 16th in the NFL with a 2.1 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which was identical to his BDR in his last year at Texas A&M. But he seems to have corrected these issues. In each of his past two seasons, he's posted a BDR in the top 10, which is a promising sign that Tannehill is growing into his role as a franchise quarterback."
Some may debate Joyner's viewpoint, noting that offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's scheme called for shorter, safer throws last year. Tannehill's 6.86 yards-per-attempt average ranked just 28th in the league in 2014. However, there's no denying that Tannehill has steadily improved in each of his three seasons, and it's reasonable to expect more development given the offensive upgrades around him.
"Tannehill's biggest weakness has been his inability to consistently complete long passes," Joyner continued. "That could change with the additions of Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. Last season, Stills ranked second among qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt and tied for fourth on stretch vertical YPA (throws of 20 yards or more). Parker's 19.9 yards-per-catch average ranked 10th in the FBS last season. This combination could dramatically improve Tannehill's subpar 2014 numbers on vertical and stretch-vertical passes - 29th and 34th overall, respectively."
Free agent addition Ndamukong Suh rightly gets all of the headlines, and the Dolphins appear to have a fierce defensive line with him, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon. But as Joyner notes, it is the offensive side of the ball that has changed for the better overall. This extends to the running game as well.
"Miami finished first in the league last year in GBP, which gauges overall rushing game production. Even if the Dolphins decline a bit in this category, they still will have an upper-tier ground game, especially if rookie Jay Ajayi can live up to his lofty potential," Joyner said.
Can the Dolphins challenge the Patriots (with or without Tom Brady), Steelers and Colts in the AFC to make a legitimate Super Bowl run? Joyner seems to think so.
But let's see them actually make the playoffs first before we anoint them the champs.
