Rising greenhouse gas levels might actually prevent another Superstorm Sandy, or at least the same weather pattern that pushed her onto the coast.
Atmospheric conditions that caused Sandy to take the path she did may be on the decline, a Colorado State University press release reported. The conditions still exist, but will occur less frequently.
"Using state-of-the-art climate models, we project that there will be a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track. That implies that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel tropical storms westward into the coast," Elizabeth Barnes, assistant professor in the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science and leader of the study, said.
Two factors are believed to have slammed Sandy into the East coast. A jet stream that was facing to the south was the first possible cause. A "wave breaking and blocking event" also caused wind to blow towards land instead of seaward.
"While we understand many of the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on the climate, such as rising sea levels and increasing global temperatures, we are still trying to understand why the jet stream is projected to shift," Barnes said. "It is in part due to the differences in the warming at the pole and the equator, but additional factors are also at play."
Recent studies have suggested Sandy's landfall over N.J. was linked to "accelerated warming over the Arctic," the CSU researchers disagree.
"Our study shows that, in the North Atlantic, the models project that temperature changes caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases will decrease the frequency of the occurrence of the circulation patterns that steered Sandy into the East Coast of the U.S," Barnes said.
The study did not predict whether future storms will be as powerful as Sandy.
"These findings do not imply that there will be fewer events with the destructive power of Hurricane Sandy," coauthor Lorenzo Polvani, said. "Just that the models say it won't be because of increased atmospheric steering toward the coast. Future changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones remain an open question, and projected sea level rise would increase the risk of storm surges.
