New research suggests an increase in severe droughts could mean the loss of many butterfly species in the United Kingdom by the year 2050.
The findings are grim, but they also suggest a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and better management of butterfly habitats could help secure the existence of drought-sensitive butterflies until at least 2100, the Center for Ecology & Hydrology reported.
"The results are worrying. Until I started this research, I hadn't quite [realized] the magnitude and potential impacts from climate change. For drought-sensitive butterflies, and potentially other taxa, widespread population extinctions are expected by 2050. To limit these loses, both habitat restoration and reducing CO2 emissions have a role. In fact, a combination of both is necessary," said study leader Tom Oliver from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.
The researchers pinpointed six butterfly species that are not likely to see the year 2050 even under the most favorable emission scenario, but they pointed out some less-studied species would also likely make this list.
"We consider the average response across Great Britain. Losses are likely to be more severe in drier areas with more intensive land use, whilst wetter areas with less fragmented habitat will provide refugia. We assume that butterflies won't have time to evolve to become more drought-tolerant, because their populations are already small, and evolution would need to be very rapid. The study looked at butterflies but the conclusions are potentially valid for other species such as birds, beetles, moths and dragonflies," Oliver said.
The researchers looked at 129 sites for 28 species monitored as part of UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, as well as data from "Central England Temperature and the England and Wales Rainfall monthly series, habitat data from UK Land Cover Map, and climate model projections from 17 global circulation models in the CMIP5 database," they reported. While there is uncertainty, many climate models predict a significant increase in severe droughts in the future, and many butterfly species will almost certainly be wiped out if measures are not taken to prevent this phenomenon.
"The study highlights the pressing need to investigate local conservation measures that may help drought-sensitive butterflies to adapt and persist in our changing countryside," said Tom Brereton from Butterfly Conservation.
The findings were published in a recent edition of the journal Nature Climate Change.
