The St. Louis Rams have not enjoyed a winning record since the 2003-04 season, but head coach Jeff Fisher is hoping to turn that trend around this year. The Rams boast an impressive front seven with an especially fierce defensive line. The unit figures to be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. If No. 10 overall pick Todd Gurley is healthy then they'll also have a deep stable of talented running backs. But, most importantly, Fisher is banking on new quarterback Nick Foles bringing some much needed stability under center.
But remember, these are the Rams we are talking about. There's no guarantee that all of this potential will translate to actual wins. To get a better grip on St. Louis' season outlook, ESPN and Football Outsiders used a projection system to predict the team's win total and playoff odds. The numbers came out to 8.8 wins and a 45.6 percent chance of making the post-season.
"Even with all the talent in the front seven, the Rams defense ranked only ninth in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings in 2014," Aaron Schatz wrote. "So the Rams went out and got more talent for their front seven this year, signing Nick Fairley and Akeem Ayers. The Rams were slightly better on defense in both 2012 and 2013, so our system looks at the three-year trend plus the added talent and sees the Rams likely to be among this year's top-five defenses.
"The system also sees St. Louis improving from a poor offense to one just below league average. There's no question that our system could be overestimating the Rams offense because of the amazing statistical season Nick Foles had in a completely different offensive system two years ago. But even last year, Foles had a 62.7 QBR, much better than the quarterbacks the Rams had on the field (Austin Davis 44.3; Shaun Hill 41.4). The Rams will also be stronger wild-card contenders if our projections if our projections are correct that Arizona and San Francisco are set to decline."
Can an entire football season be boiled down to a computer algorithm? No. There are too many real life variables to account for. But the Rams have amassed an impressive collection of young talent over the last few years and have been a popular breakout candidate for some time. If Foles can live up to expectations and the defense can play as advertised then this team has a shot of making some noise in the NFC.
