Chances are strong that the current El Niño, unofficially named Bruce Lee, is headed towards California this winter. However, what has been on the minds of Californians and weather experts alike is if this years iteration will help end the drought that has plagued the state for four years.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recorded atypical heat levels in the Pacific Ocean over the last three months. The wave of El Niño is warming up the Pacific, which will affect weather on a global scale, as reported previously by HNGN. Locally, this will affect the U.S. during the winter and can increase the chances of heavy rain and snow hitting California.
Sattelite measurements indicate that this El Niño is now more powerful than the massive one from 1997-98, reported The New York Post. The El Niño from that year was notable for starting off weaker and then finishing strong, so it's possible that "Bruce Lee" may follow a similar trend.
Chances are 50-50 of the El Niño delivering a wet winter, says California's state climatologist Michael Anderson. Since 1958, there have been seven El Nino systems - three wet, three dry, and one average.
"California cannot count on potential El Niño conditions to halt or reverse drought conditions," Anderson said. "Historical weather data shows us that at best, there is a 50/50 chance of having a wetter winter. Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we cannot even be that sure."
Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, noted that California would require 1.5 times the normal amount of rainfall to recover from drought, according to the Associated Press.
While California would benefit from prolonged rains, wildfires across the region this summer have set the stage for flooding and mudslides, according to the Daily Mail.
"If this lives up to its potential, this thing can bring a lot of floods, mudslides and mayhem," said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
So while it's possible that a wet winter could help California if it comes to pass, is it worth the flooding, mudslides and havoc that may come with it?
