Did you know that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson scored the third-most fantasy points at his position and the sixth-most overall last year? You did? Well, congratulations. You probably owned Wilson and rode his breakout season into the playoffs. You sly dog, you.
Wilson set career highs in passing yards (3,475), rushing attempts (118), rushing yards (849) and rushing touchdowns (6) in 2014. But, unfortunately, a regression back to the mean could be possible this year, according to ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner.
"Wilson's fantasy value skyrocketed last season due to his 113 fantasy points on rushing plays," Joyner wrote. "That total was nearly equal to the 117 rushing fantasy points Wilson posted in his first two NFL seasons combined. Quarterbacks have scored triple-digit rushing fantasy points only nine times since 2001, with Michael Vick accounting for four of them, so this is not the type of achievement Wilson is likely to repeat. It is more likely that Wilson will return to the rushing production level of his first two pro seasons.
"His proponents might counter this by saying any drop-off in rushing production will be more than made for by additional passes to Jimmy Graham. It's possible that will happen, but considering that Seattle's tight end corps caught 48 passes for 757 yards and six touchdowns last season, Graham's bar for improving on Wilson's fantasy passing point total isn't low. It means Wilson should not be values as an upper-tier QB1, but rather at the lower end of the tier."
It's true that Wilson likely won't match his career high in rushing attempts from last season. But if 29-year-old RB Marshawn Lynch slows down at all, and he has led the NFL in carries since coming to Seattle, then Wilson could still keep his rushing numbers up to compensate. All that wear-and-tear has to catch up to Lynch at some point, right?
In addition, Graham has averaged five receptions for 61 yards and .7 touchdowns per game since entering the league in 2010. Extrapolate that for a full 16 game season and you get 80 catches for 976 yards and 11 touchdowns. Now Seattle's offense isn't as pass-happy as New Orleans, so Graham may not approach those exact numbers. But any way you look at it, Graham (and possibly rookie Tyler Lockett) figures to push Wilson's passing numbers forward considerably.
Wilson may not be the third-highest scoring QB in fantasy again this season. But it would be surprising if he fell out of the top five.
