With Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson missing all but one game last season, there is no consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football for the first time in a few years. One possibility at the top spot is shifty Kansas City Chiefs ball-carrier Jamaal Charles.
Charles is an impressive home run threat who rushed for 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 40 passes for 291 yards and five additional scores last year. He's a quality option in both standard and PPR leagues and has averaged an impressive 5.5 yards-per-carry for his career.
Yet ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner believes Charles is headed for a down season due to his lack of usage. In Charles' seven pro seasons, he has exceeded 275 carries just a single time. Typically, a back drafted in the top five is expected to total a minimum of 214 fantasy points. Charles has topped that amount only twice and just once over the last four years.
"That he did not reach the 214-point level last season despite scoring 14 touchdowns is amazing, but it is also a concern because of how rare it is to hit pay dirt that often in a season," Joyner wrote. "Running backs have scored 14 or more touchdowns only 54 times since the 2001 season. Charles is one of 10 backs to have achieved this goal twice in that time window, but only four of those backs (LaDanian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander) did it more than twice.
"There is also worry that Charles' durability concerns will motivate Andy Reid to continue to give a significant portion of the Chiefs' carries to backup running back Knile Davis.
"These factors all indicate that Charles is not likely to finish the year in the top five in running back scoring, and thus is more of a risk than most fantasy owners will want to take with a selection in the middle of Round 1."
While Charles does come with legitimate concerns, he's still one of the most talented football players in the NFL. Over the last three seasons, he's averaged 250 carries for 1,276 yards (5.1 YPC) and eight touchdowns while catching 48 passes for 406 yards and four scores. Even with the decrease in workload, Charles still has considerable upside as a fantasy running back.
