Scientists have created a new method to help predict the maximum cost of coastal flooding to communities situated near estuaries.
To make these predictions, a team of researchers combined high-impact flooding scenarios with land use maps, the National Oceanography Center reported. The findings suggest the potential economic damage of coastal flooding increased much more than expected as the size of the flood grew.
Combining a flood inundation model with one that simulates the effect of waves allowed the researchers to estimate the increase in ocean-related threats as the climate changes. The model the predicts how many "brick layers" the flood water will reach, which could be extremely valuable for future mitigation projects.
"By showing how high the flood water could rise in terms of brick courses, and providing a corresponding estimate of economic damage, these new maps can help residents see the impact of low probability flooding scenarios," said Thomas Prime from the University of Liverpool.
The model works by taking the predicted water depth and relating it to land use maps. The information is fed into "depth-damage curves," which provide a value for the economic damage of flooding for a specific water depth and land use type.
"This new visual representation of flood hazard identifies areas at risk, allowing improved adaptive management - increasing community resilience to climate change and rising sea levels. This work leverages the expertise in marine hazards from across NOC, and our external collaborators, to assess flood risk to a coastal community from extreme waves, water levels and projected rises in sea level," said Jenny Brown, co-author of this study from the NOC.
The findings were published in a recent edition of the journal PLOS One.
