The Boston Red Sox traded starting pitcher John Lackey to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Allen Craig and starter Joe Kelly last year. At this point the deal has been a nightmare for Boston, but Kelly has given the Red Sox some hope.
Rumors earlier this season suggested Kelly could be moved to the bullpen or even designated for assignment. After being demoted to Triple-A earlier this year, Kelly returned in late July and took a few starts to get back in a rhythm. In the month of August he's 5-0 (most wins this month in the MLB) with a 3.03 ERA, 7.9 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings in starts against the Rays, Tigers, Mariners, Indians and White Sox.
While most of those opponents rank at the bottom of the league in runs scored, Kelly has made remarkable strides this month. In his last seven starts he surrendered five earned runs or more only once after doing it five times in his previous 14 outings. This recent stretch of performances mirrors the old Kelly, who owned a 3.25 ERA in 38 starts (213 1/3 innings) with the Cardinals from 2012-2014.
Are the Red Sox now hopeful the 27-year-old can be an integral part of their future starting rotation? He's under club control through 2018, so he'll be with the team for the foreseeable future.
"I completely understand why people would look [the trade] the way they do right now, but if there's one thing I've learned in the 10 or 11 years I've been around the team, trades can look very different at different points in time," Red Sox senior baseball analyst Tom Tippett said, via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. "They look one way when they happen, another way a month later, another way six months later, and sometimes they look very different two years down the road. ... In my view, if we can figure out how to turn Joe Kelly into a No. 2 or 3 starter with all those great tools he has, it might look very good a few years from now."
Kelly could be an important piece moving forward with rumors suggesting new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski may not pick up Clay Buchholz's $13 million team option for 2016. Kelly will be under bargain annual salaries until he hits free agency and he's been working on his approach - two things that work in favor of the Red Sox.
"I would have done what we're doing now, mix pitches no matter who the hitter is, not just keep serving up heaters," Kelly told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com when asked what has changed in the last month. "I get a little heater happy. If you're not throwing off-speed for strikes it doesn't matter. But I've been able to get it over for strikes."
According to FanGraphs, Kelly has thrown his fastball (which has averaged nearly 96 mph) about 67% of the time this season while his slider (13.4%), changeup (10.6%) and curveball (9.2%) have accounted for only one-third of his total pitches.
Just take a look at his last three outings compared to his first three of the season:
8/24 vs. White Sox: Fastball (45.6%), Slider (23.3%), Changeup (20.4%) and Curveball (10.7%)
8/19 vs. Indians: Fastball (64%), Slider (16%), Changeup (12%) and Curveball (8%)
8/14 vs. Mariners: Fastball (66%), Slider (17%), Changeup (14.2%) and Curveball (2.8%)
-----
4/11 vs. Yankees: Fastball (72%), Slider (19.4%), Curveball (7.5%) and Changeup (1.1%)
4/17 vs. Orioles: Fastball (73.7%), Slider (12.7%), Curveball (6.8%) and Changeup (6.8%)
4/22 vs. Rays: Fastball (76.8%), Slider (14.6%), Curveball (11.5%) and Changeup (4.8%)
Kelly is diversifying his pitch usage, which will make it more difficult for teams to scout the right-hander. His high fastball total from previous starts likely made it easy for hitters to approach him, but his off-speed stuff is bound to stymie his opponents.
His recent revival is certainly nothing for the Red Sox to rely on. However, it gives them hope as they approach the 2016 season looking to revamp their starting rotation. If Kelly keeps up the solid performances through September then he'll likely be a big part of their plans next season.
