Fantasy football is a guessing game. Sometimes, you can apply all of the research, statistical evidence and logic in the world to a situation, and it still doesn't break right. Football is more than simple X's and O's. That's why I can hit on my Tyler Eifert prediction last week but completely whiff on Alfred Morris. Wonky things happen so the best you can do as a fantasy football owner is minimize risk and consistently put yourself in the best position to succeed.
You do that by analyzing the data available to you and marrying that with what you see when you watch football. Every single stat and storyline this offseason would of have you believed that the San Francisco 49ers were going to be an absolute mess this season. And, hey, they still could be; it's hard for me to believe in head coach Jim Tomsula when he looks like a half-eaten jolly rancher. But Carlos Hyde and that San Fran running game sure looked good against the Minnesota Vikings Monday night...
We don't know what's going to happen on Sundays, but we can make an educated guess and act accordingly. As a result, here are a few players I'm hot on in Week 2 and few that give me the chills.
Hot:
QB: Eli Manning
Yeah, that Sunday night game against the Dallas Cowboys was ugly. But remember, Manning received considerable fantasy hype this offseason thanks to the weapons around him. It's hard for me to believe that the trio of Odell Beckham Jr., Larry Donnell and Shane Vereen will combine for a total of 11 standard fantasy points again. Ben McAdoo's scheme is designed to create quick and easy strikes for Manning and that's what he's going to do against this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Yes, these are the same Falcons that just surrendered 336 passing yards to Sam Bradford on Monday. Yes, these are the same Falcons that allowed the most yards-per-game (398.2) and passing yards (279.9) last season. I know Dan Quinn is a great defensive mind, I know Desmond Trufant is one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL and I know top-ten pick Vic Beasley made an impact against Philly. But I also know that this defense is far from a finished product and that the Giants are a better offense than what they showed against Dallas.
RB: C.J. Anderson
Anderson, who came into this season with high expectations from fantasy owners, is currently questionable with a toe injury for tonight's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. But if he does suit up, I expect a solid outing. I know Peyton Manning looked like he was throwing against Monsoon winds last week, but he's the most cerebral QB in NFL history. If anyone can figure out how to compensate for declining arm strength, it's him.
Plus, Anderson is running in Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme. A Kubiak-led offense has finished in the top ten in rushing in four of the last five years. Since Week 10 of 2014, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards in the league. They let the Houston Texans average 4.7 yards-per-carry last week. If he plays, Anderson should put up decent numbers.
Bonus: Lamar Miller
WR: Mike Wallace
Normally, I'm not a fan of feast-or-famine players like Wallace. He ended up on just one of my fantasy teams this season and that was out of pure necessity. Not helping matters is the measly three points Minnesota mustered on Monday despite an offseason of hype. But Wallace did rack up a solid seven targets, hauling in six for 63 yards and what would have been a tuddie if not for an uncalled pass interference.
Teddy Bridgewater's accuracy throwing deep was better than Ryan Tannehill's last season, and the Vikings are playing a Detroit Lions team that allowed seven plays of 20 or more yards in Week 1. Top Detroit CB Darius Slay may be sidelined with an ankle injury, allowing Wallace to run go-routes to his heart's desire. Could he put up a goose egg? Absolutely. But I wouldn't be surprised if he broke free for a long score in this one.
TE: Jason Witten
This is more of a gut call than anything else. Witten owners know that the future Hall of Famer failed to regularly produce last year and is starting to show his age. But with Dez Bryant leaving the season opener due to injury, Tony Romo looked Witten's way early and often. Nine targets, eight receptions and two touchdowns...Thank you sir, may I have another?
The Eagles defense is (presumably) better than New York's. But the sheer volume of targets that will be forced onto Witten with Bryant out gives him more upside.
Cold:
QB: Sam Bradford
When you can only manage 13 standard fantasy points on a whopping 52 passing attempts, you know something is wrong. I realize Bradford has an incredibly high ceiling thanks to Chip Kelly's offense; as I said before, he did throw for more than 330 yards in Week 1. But Bradford was never consistently impressive in St. Louis even when he was healthy and I'm still far from sold that he's not just another guy.
Could he gel with the offense and avoid back breaking turnovers in this one? Sure. But I don't think the same volume will be there with a Cowboys team that controlled the clock for 37:10 minutes last week and will look to run even more with Bryant sidelined. Bradford has to prove it to me before I trust him.
RB: Jonathan Stewart
The Jacksonville Jaguars have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs since the start of last season, yet Stewart managed just 56 rushing yards and a 3.1 YPC against them in Week 1. Now, that's not entirely Stewart's fault. When healthy, he produced down the stretch last year. But the Carolina Panthers have virtually no passing game (Cam Newton threw for just 175 yards on 31 attempts) and one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL (ranked 22nd by Pro Football Focus last year).
Making matters worse, Stewart missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury. Would you want to go up against J.J. Watt with no blocking, no passing game and a balky knee? I didn't think so.
WR: Andre Johnson
I was a big believer in Johnson this offseason and I'm still high on him the rest of the year. But Revis Island looms large this week...
TE: Eric Ebron
Ebron finally "broke out" last week with four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown after a disappointing rookie season last year for the top-ten pick. By all accounts, he should be the No. 1 tight end for Matthew Stafford going forward which bodes well for his fantasy prospects. But Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are healthy, meaning Ebron is still No. 3 on the pecking order.
The Lions used their first-round pick on guard Laken Tomlinson and their second-round pick on running back Ameer Abdullah. This is a team that wants to run more this season and, against a Vikings team that allowed an average of just five fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, Ebron isn't a high upside play.
