Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has looked the part of a bonafide franchise signal-caller for two straight weeks now, which, sadly, is a longer streak than the likes of Aaron Brooks, Jamarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor and a hobbled Carson Palmer were able to string together as members of the silver and black over the past decade. While Carr has yet to prove on a long-term basis that he's the "answer," the guy who can take the Raiders from the basement to the bank, his efforts over the last two weeks against the Ravens and Browns - 50 completions, 665-yards passing, five touchdowns, one interception - have certainly provided ample reason for optimism in Oakland. It also apparently has evaluators around the NFL - as well as Browns cornerback Tramon Williams - considering a bright future for the Raiders passer.
Prior to the season, one unnamed offensive coordinator, speaking with Bill Williamson of ESPN, called Carr "special," and surmised that with a good offseason of development, he could potentially surpass Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Alex Smith for the mantle of "Best Quarterback in the AFC West." So far, Carr's certainly made his case.
But his play hasn't been perfect and it seems there's at least one key element of his game that's still missing at this point.
"The same things I liked about him, I still like about him," an unnamed NFL defensive coach said recently, via Williamson. "He is decisive for a second-year quarterback. He has a pretty quick release. But like a lot of these young quarterbacks, his accuracy and ball location drop way down when he throws outside the numbers. There are too many overthrows on outs and comebacks and even boots. Also, in the one preseason and three regular-season games I watched, there were not many instances of 30-plus throws where he has to arc them in, so that evaluation is still outstanding."
At present, Carr ranks seventh in QBR in the league behind Aaron Rodgers - who put on an absolute clinic against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night - Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. That's pretty good company, even if it is still quite early in the season.
Still, as the unnamed defensive coach notes, it's the deep ball and so-called, "pro passes," that have not yet made their way into Carr's repertoire. With coordinator Bill Musgrave employing something of a Chip Kelly-esque scheme focused on quick passes and tempo, Carr hasn't been forced to attempt many deep outs or comebacks. And on the one's that he has, he's off the league average.
He's attempted three passes of 30-yards or more, completing one. Per Williamson, the league average is 1-for-4 on those throws. On passes traveling outside the numbers and beyond five-yards past the line of scrimmage, Carr has completed 14-of-31, good enough for 22nd in the NFL.
The league's best passers - Tony Romo, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Brady - are all at the top of the category in this particular statistic. Of course, Palmer is not.
In the end, the consensus seems to be that there simply isn't enough known yet about Carr to definitively say what he is or what he'll become. Things are trending in an upward direction, thanks in large part to improved offensive line play, the development of running back Latavius Murray and the addition of receiving weapons Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.
With a seeming cupcake matchup against a reeling Chicago Bears team coming up this weekend, Carr has another opportunity to assert himself as one of the league's top young passers. Whether he can avoid the potential pratfall of taking on a down-on-their-luck opponent too lightly and continue his ascent to legitimate franchise quarterback, is the question.
