There's a great scene in season one of HBO's "Silicon Valley" (no, not that scene) that talks about "pivoting," or adjusting to a situation once challenges arise. Not only is the scene hilarious, but it also speaks to something true in life. Rarely do things go as planned so you must be able to adapt on the fly.
The same applies to fantasy football. With Week 4 upon us, injuries and the first bye week are beginning to wreak havoc on your lineups. (I feel your pain, Dez Bryant owners. It's okay, Tom Brady starters, let it out). It's still early in the season, but this week could mean the difference between digging yourself out of a deep hole or building a comfortable lead in the standings. To help bring you the latter, here are a few players I'm hot and cold on this week.
Hot:
QB: Derek Carr
Is Carr the real deal or should owners expect him to come back down to earth? Probably a bit of both. While he won't hang 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns on every team this season, the evidence points to Carr being a talented franchise QB in-the-making.
Believe it or not, the Raiders have put together a solid pass-blocking offensive line (Carr has been sacked just three times and hit only 12 times) and Amari Cooper is a rapidly emerging superstar. The ingredients for fantasy goodness are all there.
It also helps that the Raiders are playing the Chicago Bears, who have allowed eight passing touchdowns already this season. With Jared Allen gone, Oakland has one less defensive weapon to worry about and that bodes well for Carr.
RB: C.J. Spiller
Risky, I know. But you didn't come here so I could tell you start Adrian Peterson. Check out this quote from Saints coach Sean Payton on Spiller this week:
"I've gotta get him more opportunities. He's healthy and, shoot, he needs more than anything to stay actively warm as opposed to a play every 12 or 14 plays...He's 100 percent healthy."
Through two games, Spiller has totaled just seven touches. Do you think that's what New Orleans had in mind when they gave him close to $10 million guaranteed? Whether it's an injured Drew Brees or Luke McCown under center, the Saints offense is going to be check down city this week against a Dallas defense that allowed 10 receptions and 105 receiving yards to opposing RBs over the past two weeks. Overall, the Cowboys have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to the RB position. Time to earn that money, Spiller.
Bonus: Melvin Gordon
WR: Pierre Garcon
Washington is still without top WR DeSean Jackson, making Garcon the nominal No. 1 in the pecking order, especially downfield.
Warning: This game could be rescheduled due to weather concerns. But if not, Garcon is in for a solid day. Playing at home against an Eagles defense that has allowed four different receivers to rack up at least 80 yards (three of them catching touchdowns), Garcon could approach the 100-yard mark while getting some end zone looks. He's not a flashy pick, but he should get the job done.
TE: Eric Ebron
The Seattle Seahawks are not living up to their lofty defensive reputation. Well, at least against tight ends they're not. Seattle is currently surrendering an average of 10.3 points per game to the TE position. And which hot tight end just happens to be playing against that defense this week?
Ebron has seen at least five targets and caught at least four passes in every game this season. Despite putting an emphasis on the run game this offseason, the Lions are averaging 43 pass attempts per game this year. With that kind of volume, it doesn't matter that he's the No. 3 target in the passing game. Expect another solid outing from the former first-round pick.
Cold:
QB: Carson Palmer
It pains me to say it because I love a good comeback story, but I wouldn't expect big things from Palmer this week. Though he has been superb this season (nine touchdowns, two 300-plus yard game), he'll be facing a stout St. Louis Rams defense that leads the league in sacks (13.0) and has only allowed two scores to opposing QBs this year. Overall, the Rams have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the QB position this season.
The Cardinals offense has looked impressive thus far but they may hit a wall in this tough divisional matchup.
RB: Justin Forsett
The Steelers defense is not what it used to be, that's for sure. But they are still down right stingy against the run. Through three games, Pittsburgh hasn't allowed a single 100-yard rusher or a score on the ground. Overall, they're surrendering an average of just 7.3 fantasy points per game to the position.
And it's not as if Forsett has been matching his career performance of last year. He's averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and though he's racked up 105 receiving yards, he's yet to see the end zone. He'll be lucky to top 80 yards in this outing.
WR: Rishard Matthews
Easy there, tiger. I know Matthews is the hot waiver wire pick up after two weeks of 110-plus yards and three total touchdowns. But let's remember that this guy wasn't even on the fantasy radar during the preseason. First-round rookie DeVante Parker is steadily getting more playing time which is eating into Matthews' snap count.
Plus, the Dolphins are playing a stout New York Jets pass defense that has locked down No. 1 WRs T.Y. Hilton and Jordan Matthews in the last two weeks.
Play it safe this week, start the stud you drafted over the trendy free agent.
TE: Heath Miller
No Ben Roethlisberger hurts. Playing the No. 1 fantasy defense against tight ends in the Ravens doesn't help either. I know Baltimore is currently allowing 294.7 yards per game through the air and look vulnerable, but they haven't allowed more than 15 receiving yards to an opposing tight end in three games. Look elsewhere.
