Clayton Kershaw likely won't take home the NL Cy Young award for the third consecutive season. Los Angeles Dodgers starter Zack Greinke and Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta are the frontrunners for the honors in 2015, but who will win?
Conventional wisdom suggests Greinke will take home his second Cy Young award, but Arrieta's run to close out the season is not going to make it easy for the voters. Check out their stats for the 2015 season below:
Greinke: 18-3 with a 1.68 ERA (leads MLB), 0.85 WHIP (leads MLB) and 192 strikeouts in 31 starts (214 2/3 innings). He also leads the MLB in win-loss percentage (.857) and ERA+ (221). His 8.8 WAR is best among all pitchers and fourth in the league behind Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson.
Arrieta: 21-6 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 229 strikeouts in 32 starts (223 innings). He leads the MLB in wins (21), opponents' batting average (.187), hits per nine innings (5.97), home runs per nine innings (0.4), complete games (4) and shutouts (3). His 8.3 WAR is second-best among pitchers behind Greinke and good for sixth in the league. He also threw a no-hitter this year against the Dodgers.
Here's some insightful analysis from FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal:
"The debate boils down to best season vs. best second half. Many of the full-season measures (ERA, ERA-plus, opponents' OPS, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio) favor Greinke. Some (innings, FIP) favor Arrieta. But in almost every category, the difference is negligible.
"Quality of opponents? True, nine of Arrieta's 32 starts were against the Cardinals and Pirates, the two top teams in the NL. But 12 of Greinke's 31 starts came within the NL West, where the Rockies, D-backs and Giants are three of the four-highest scoring clubs in the NL, and the Padres are 10th. The combined overall OPS of Greinke's opponents is .729, according to STATS LLC. The combined OPS of Arrieta's is .716.
"If the award were for most valuable pitcher, Arrieta's 0.80 ERA since the All-Star break might prove decisive. But the award is for best pitcher, and I interpret that to mean best pitcher for the entire season.
"Let's not over-think this: Greinke's 1.68 ERA would be the lowest over a full season since Greg Maddux in 1995."
It really depends on how the voters look at this.
Greinke has had quality starts in 29 out of his 31 outings and Arrieta has registered 28 out of his 32 (including 18 in a row). Out of his 31 starts, Greinke has made 14 against teams with winning records. On the other hand, Arrieta has faced winning teams in 17 starts, mostly because of the presence of the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates (the MLBs two best teams) in the Cubs' division.
Here are the two starters' stats against winning MLB clubs and also some other interesting numbers:
Greinke: 8-1 with a 1.78 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 84 strikeouts
Zack Greinke has been making a VERY interesting case for the Cy Young Award. pic.twitter.com/uQR726S7Mi
— Baseball Tonight (@BBTN) September 29, 2015
Arrieta: 12-2 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 121 strikeouts
Jake Arrieta since July 12 HR hit 2 HR allowed 2 (in 105 1/3 innings) And his ERA in that span: 0.85
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 28, 2015
According to the MLB Cy Young Predictor, Arrieta is expected to finish with 215 Cy Young Points against Greinke's 209.3.
If that's not good enough for you, sabermatricians Tom Tango and Bill James have their own formulas for Cy Young Points and Arrieta is still expected to finish ahead of Greinke in both of those predictions.
Tom Tango Cy Young Points (Formula - (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W):
Arrieta - 110.4
Greinke - 104.5
Bill James Cy Young Points (Formula - ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + (First Place*12):
Arrieta - 215
Greinke - 209.3
Last year both formulas were correct in predicting Kershaw as the NL Cy Young winner, but only Bill James was right about Corey Kluber winning the AL Cy Young (Tango had Felix Hernandez). Both formulas successfully predicted Kershaw and Scherzer in 2013 as well as R.A. Dickey in 2012, but both were wrong about David Price in 2012 (as both had Justin Verlander as the projected winner).
Each starter will take the hill one more time this season, as Greinke will face the Padres this weekend and Arrieta will take on the Brewers. Perhaps a bad start from one of them can make this Cy Young race a bit more clear, but if they keep pitching like their usual selves, it's going to remain a tight one.
HNGN's 2015 NL Cy Young Winner Prediction: Arrieta
