The Chicago Cubs captured their first postseason victory since 2003 last night when they defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. They'll now move on to face the MLB-best St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS to continue the MLB playoffs, and the Cubbies have a good chance to win that five-game series.
Manager Joe Maddon kept his team calm and collected in a loud PNC Park last night. Behind Jake Arrieta's complete game shutout, rookie Kyle Schwarber and leadoff man Dexter Fowler scored all of the runs in Chicago's 4-0 win. What will be the keys in their upcoming series against the Cardinals?
Here are five reasons the Cubs will defeat St. Louis and advance to their first NLCS in 12 years.
5. Back to the Future's Prediction
In Back to the Future Part II, a "holomax" revealed that the Chicago Cubs defeated "Miami" in the 2015 World Series. That Miami team's logo was an alligator in the film, but at the time there was also no Miami baseball franchise, which is something the film rightfully predicted for 2015.
The only other inconsistency here is that it wouldn't be possible for Chicago and Miami to square off in the World Series. However, how can we doubt Doc and Marty McFly?
"Whether the Cubs make it or the Cubs don't make it, the joke will still be funny," Bob Gale, the film's screenwriter, told Christopher Placek of the Daily Herald. "And if the Cubs do make it, then I'm a visionary."
Even Neil deGrasse Tyson is pulling for the Cubbies.
CALLING ALL GEEKS: Must root for @Cubs - to fulfill their Prophesy in "Back the Future II" pic.twitter.com/OPDCb6JTuq
— Neil deGrasse Tyson (@neiltyson) October 7, 2015
OK. Now for the serious reasons.
4. The Momentum
Last night's win gave the Cubs one intangible factor that the Cardinals do not possess right now - momentum. Yes, St. Louis finished with the best record (100-62) in the MLB and defeated the Cubs in 11 of their 19 matchups during the regular season, but four of those wins were only by one run.
On top of that, Chicago has won nine in a row while St. Louis has lost five of their last seven. Since the beginning of September, the Cardinals are 15-17 (their worst stretch of the season came in mid-September when they lost eight of 10) while the Cubs are 23-9.
3. Joe Maddon
Again, yes, Mike Matheny is the only manager in MLB history to make the postseason in his first four years on the job, but Cubs' manager Joe Maddon has been around much longer and has had much less to work with. The 61-year-old has managed 10 full MLB seasons and recorded winning records with the lowly Tampa Bay Rays in six of his nine years there, including one World Series appearance.
The Cubs' positioning right now is perhaps reminiscent of the Rays' 2008 World Series run. A young team that finished the season with an excellent record (both were 97-65) in a division with juggernaut MLB clubs.
Maddon's philosophy has clearly worked well with the young Cubs' roster. They were unfazed in a raucous PNC Park last night and a rookie (Kyle Schwarber) was the driving force in that victory. Key defensive plays from fellow rookies Kris Bryant and Addison Russell also ensured the team's win, and they'll have some home games in this next series, which will be another advantage.
As for their record at Busch Stadium, Chicago is only 3-7, but three of those losses were by one run.
2. Cardinals' Injuries
St. Louis has been plagued by injuries for much of the year, and a lot of the credit goes to Matheny for keeping the club afloat and making the right managerial moves. However, the injuries could prove to be too much for the postseason, where every pitch and at-bat matters.
They won't have Carlos Martinez or Adam Wainwright in the starting rotation, leaving John Lackey and/or Michael Wacha/Lance Lynn to face Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester (which aren't bad matchups, but the Cubs are definitely favored there). Additionally, Yadier Molina missed the final two weeks of the season with a partially torn ligament in his thumb, so it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy for the NLDS, and rookie Stephen Piscotty, who was involved in an ugly outfield collision on Sept. 28 and suffered a concussion, will be making his postseason debut after logging only four at-bats over the past week and a half.
Although the team is "optimistic" about Molina's chances of returning, there has yet to be an official announcement on his status. Here's a fun fact: the Cardinals did not win another game (0-3) after Molina went down with an injury during the 2014 playoffs.
1. Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester
Need we say more? Arrieta's second half of 2015 (12-1 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.73 WHIP) was among the best in MLB history and he added to those credentials with a complete game shutout on the road against the Pirates last night in his postseason debut. He was also 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 25 strikeouts in four starts (26 innings) against the Cardinals this season.
He'll likely pitch in Game 3 when the series comes back to Wrigley Field.
As for Lester, the left-hander's postseason resume is among the best of his generation. He's 6-4 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 14 games (12 starts), totaling 84 innings with the Boston Red Sox (13 games) and Oakland Athletics (one game). He has two World Series rings and owns a 2-0 record with a 0.59 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in two starts (15 1/3 innings) against the Cardinals in the postseason.
Although he's only 1-3 against St. Louis in five starts this year, he sports a 2.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and has struck out 34 batters in 31 1/3 innings.
He'll be taking the mound against John Lackey tomorrow at 6:30 p.m. ET in Game 1. Lester is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 13 strikeouts in two starts (14 innings) at Busch Stadium this season.
