The final game of the League Division Series will take place on Thursday night in Los Angeles when the Dodgers host the New York Mets to determine who advances to the NLCS. The 2015 MLB playoffs have been nothing short of electrifying thus far, and tonight's action is bound to follow the script.
Here's what to expect in Game 5 of the NLDS between the Dodgers and Mets.
3. Zack Greinke's potential final start for the Dodgers
The postseason atmosphere has undoubtedly made us forget about the offseason. Greinke, who has three years and over $70 million remaining on his contract with the Dodgers, has an opt-out clause he can exercise after the season. Rumors have suggested he will indeed opt out and seek one last long-term deal before he gets too old to cash in again (he'll be 32 next week versus 35 when his current deal expires).
Considering he's a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award after his tremendous 2015 campaign (19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), he's bound to earn even more money given the way pitchers have been paid over the past few years. Now, the Dodgers would have no problem having Greinke name his price, but there are a number of other MLB clubs that could give the right-hander a better chance to win a championship.
The Dodgers, despite being one win away from an NLCS appearance, aren't exactly a balanced ball club. There are a lot of holes in their roster - they finished 19th in the MLB in runs scored during the regular season and their starting rotation beyond Greinke and Clayton Kershaw is nothing to get excited about for the future. Additionally, many would argue the team has gotten worse under the new front office management.
If the Dodgers lose tonight, Greinke could be gone by November.
2. Both teams will combine for no more than four runs
Expect a pitcher's duel for the ages, and if you're a bettor, take the under. Aside from the slugfest in Game 3 (20 total runs scored), these two teams have combined for a total of 15 runs in the other three games, and it should be even less than that because of the Chase Utley takeout slide controversy.
Although Mets' starter Jacob deGrom surrendered eight earned runs in two starts (12 innings) against the Dodgers during his rookie campaign in 2014, he has rebounded this year and is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts (14 2/3 innings), with his victory coming in Game 1 of this series.
He finished the season 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 205 strikeouts in 30 starts (191 innings).
As for Greinke, the right-hander led the MLB in ERA (1.66) and WHIP (0.84) during the regular series. He has faced the Mets seven times in his career and is 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA, including a win in Game 2 of this series.
And you know what else? These two clubs arguably possess the worst offenses in this postseason.
The Dodgers have the fewest runs scored (16), home runs (2), RBIs (15) and total bases (48) of any team that advanced past the wild-card game. Their OPS (.645) is also only ahead of the Rangers.
The Mets are batting .206/.279/.381 as a team (their average is the worst among LDS teams) with six home runs and 19 RBIs. Thirteen of those runs came in one game, so in the three other LDS games they've scored six runs.
Match these offenses up with two of the best pitchers in the MLB and you get minimal run production. It's basic math, people.
1. Expect the Mets to fight for their lives like you've never seen before
With a loss, the Mets could go back to being the "same old Mets" in 2016.
Again, we're forgetting about the offseason as the postseason keeps us living in the moment. But do you remember the Mets before the All-Star break? They were 28th in the MLB in runs scored and still trailed the underachieving Washington Nationals in the NL East. Granted, they were also without David Wright as well.
General manager Sandy Alderson then executed a number of trades that bolstered the offense and bullpen. The acquisitions of Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson facilitated much more run scoring (the Mets led the NL in that category during the second half of the season) and the addition of Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed helped out a bullpen that was beginning to experience a bit of trouble.
Well, all of those players except Reed will hit free agency after this season, as will second baseman Daniel Murphy, starter Bartolo Colon and a few others.
Will Alderson be able to retain some of these key players? And if not, will he be able to supplement that talent with other free agent acquisitions? The Mets have not been known for their deep pockets in recent years, and Cespedes saying he's looking for a six-year deal certainly makes for a gloomy forecast once the Mets enter the offseason.
A few other players have also benefitted from Alderson's offensive acquisitions. Curtis Granderson saw his stat line balloon from .243/.340/.417 in the first half to .278/.392/.506 in the second half, and Murphy's overall numbers also saw improvement.
The Mets' stellar pitching won't be able to take them to the postseason every year. And let's not even mention the trade rumors surrounding Matt Harvey.
Some say I'm a pessimist, but I'd like to think I'm a realist, especially in this situation.
Be sure to tune in to TBS at 8:00 p.m. ET for Game 5 of the NLDS. Click here for the live stream and live radio broadcast.
