Researchers predicted when each region's climate will shift so drastically that it surpasses the most extreme weather experienced within the past 150 years, and it might happen sooner than you think.
Tropical areas are expected to reach "unprecedented" climates within the next decade, a University of Hawaii at Manoa press release reported.
After that, the "average location on Earth" could experience drastic changes in climate as soon as the year 2047 if nothing changes in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. If the emission are stabilized, the world is still looking at a "global mean climate departure" by 2069.
"The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon," lead author Camilo Mora, said. "Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past."
The researchers took a variety of factors into account including "evaporation, precipitation, and ocean surface temperature and pH."
When they looked at the pH of the ocean, the team discovered we had already surpassed global extremes back in 2008. The ocean absorbs a majority of man made CO2 emissions and the pH has not shown drastic changes in the past, so the finding adds up.
The team's findings had bad news for species biodiversity as well. They found the largest factor in species die-out will not be extreme changes in the poles as is widely believed, but rather small variations in tropical climates. Tropical species are adapted to a fairly consistent climate year-round, so even small changes in weather can carry extreme consequences.
"Previous studies have already shown that corals and other tropical species are currently living in areas near their physiological limits. The study suggests that conservation planning could be undermined as protected areas will face unprecedented climates just as early and because most centers of high species diversity are located in developing countries," the press release reported.
The rapid changes will cause species to migrate outside of their regular stomping grounds in hopes of outrunning extinction.
"This work demonstrates that we are pushing the ecosystems of the world out of the environment in which they evolved into wholly new conditions that they may not be able to cope with. Extinctions are likely to result," Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, and who was not involved in this study, said. "Some ecosystems may be able to adapt, but for others, such as coral reefs, complete loss of not only individual species but their entire integrity is likely."
The extreme climate changes will affect human societies as well, and could drastically impact global food supplies.
"Our results suggest that countries first impacted by unprecedented climates are the ones with the least capacity to respond," coauthor Ryan Longman said. "Ironically, these are the countries that are least responsible for climate change in the first place."
"Scientists have repeatedly warned about climate change and its likely effects on biodiversity and people," Mora said. "Our study shows that such changes are already upon us. These results should not be reason to give up. Rather, they should encourage us to reduce emissions and slow the rate of climate change. This can buy time for species, ecosystems, and ourselves to adapt to the coming changes."
