I just pulled off a big trade in one of my leagues. I was desperately in need of a viable starting running back so I shook things up, made a move that completely changed the foundation of my starting lineup.
A big move like this carries some inherent risk, obviously. But we're past the midway point for most fantasy leagues; now is the time to go out on a ledge if you think it will put you in a better position to make a run for the trophy. Negotiation is a skill, and it comes in handy for fantasy football. If you have any lingering doubts about your squad, you should try to bolster it now while you still can. If you're lacking confidence, don't stand pat.
The same goes for your matchups. If you're in a tight race for the playoffs, you can't afford a single mistake. So to try and help, here are a few players I'm hot and cold on this week.
HOT
QB: Philip Rivers
Remember that trade I just mentioned? Philip Rivers was a part of it. I sent him packing, which means he'll definitely go off to spite me this week. I see how it is, Phil.
But there's no denying that the San Diego QB has been on a hot streak over the past four games. Coming off multiple TDs and at least 336 passing yards in each outing during that span, Rivers is facing a Baltimore Ravens defense this week that has allowed the second most fantasy points to QBs this season.
Rivers got off to a similarly hot start last year before fading badly down the stretch. Could something similar happen again this year thanks to San Diego's porous defense and struggling offensive line? Sure. But I don't think it's happening this week.
RB: Justin Forsett
Sticking with the Chargers/Ravens matchup, I think Forsett is about to go off...He may have also been involved in the aforementioned trade...I may be ignoring my responsibilities as an unbiased sports writer to try and jinx/reverse jinx everyone involved in that trade for my own selfish fantasy purposes...Don't judge me, I'm in a playoff race.
But seriously, San Diego has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs in the league this year at 23.6 per week. The Chargers have allowed more than 100 yards rushing and at least one score on the ground to teams in each of their last three games (all losses). The Chargers D has also allowed opposing RBs to haul in 24 passes for 186 yards and two scores in that time.
Forsett just happens to be one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Seems like a good play to me.
WR: Calvin Johnson
I know you were going to start him anyway, but still, I got a column to write here.
Johnson has been very solid this season but far from other worldly with just one 100-yard game and three tuddies thus far. But the upside is here.
Matthew Stafford is averaging a whopping 38 passes per game with Johnson seeing 10 targets per week, so the volume isn't a problem. On Sunday, Johnson will play a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has already surrendered 108 receptions, 1,549 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns to opposing WRs this year. That's a lot.
Plus, the Lions are finally starting to play like the .500 team we thought they were in the preseason instead of the 1-6 team they've stumbled to. It all bodes well for Megatron.
TE: Gary Barndridge
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Doesn't matter. I'm starting to believe Barnridge is more benevolent spirit here to bring fantasy goodness to true believers than just a normal football player. He's a must-start right now regardless of matchup.
COLD
QB: Aaron Rodgers
I realize that if you own him, you're starting him. But if you're playing in Daily Fantasy Sports games, you might want to look elsewhere.
The Packers are undefeated at 6-0, but Rodgers has missed Jordy Nelson like I miss my bed when I leave for work every morning. The reigning MVP has topped 255 yards just once this year and will be facing a Denver Broncos defense that is capping QBs at 220 passing yards per game and five total scores through the air.
Granted, Denver hasn't faced a signal-caller like Rodgers all year, but the Broncos defense has forced 13 QB turnovers and is allowing just 7.8 fantasy points per week to the position.
The upside is limited unless Green Bay really throws a beat down Denver's way on the road.
RB: Lamar Miller
Miller and the Dolphins have been crushing it since Joe Philbin was fired. Over his past two games, the RB has racked up an insane 354 total yards and three touchdowns. But it's important to remember that those numbers came against the the Titans and Texans, the Frank Stallone and Haylie Duff of NFL defenses. This week, Miller will face a New England Patriots defense that just allowed its first rushing TD since Week 2 and its first opposing ballcarrier to top 80 yards all season.
Move along.
WR: Amari Cooper
Cooper made me look bad last week after he took personal exception to being put on the Cold list and erupted for 133 yards and a tuddie. But I'm not afraid to double up on the rookie wide receiver considering he'll be booking a one-way ticket to Revis Island this weekend.
If Cooper can get it done against Revis then I will officially anoint him a true-blue No. 1 fantasy wide receiver. But I'm betting he doesn't.
TE: Eric Ebron
I know what I said about KC's pass defense, and I know that Ebron has scored in three of five games. But the Chiefs have actually allowed just two touchdowns to TEs all season and have surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to the position overall. For all of their faults on that side of the ball, they're strangely stingy against tight ends.
