Zack Greinke officially opted out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday and will hit free agency on Saturday. The right-hander left over $70 million on the table in pursuit of another long-term deal following his Cy Young-caliber 2015 campaign.
Rumors have linked him to a number of destinations outside of the Dodgers, but we've narrowed them down to three clubs. This year's MLB free agent class is crowded with top starters, so just about anything can happen this offseason.
Here are our three destinations for Greinke.
3. San Francisco Giants
If the Giants didn't have other needs I would've put them at No. 1, but they need to address their outfield as well (and perhaps their bullpen because Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt won't be back). Additionally, I'm not so sure Greinke would be atop their list of free agent starters because of his age (32) and the fact he could land another five-year contract.
However, the Giants just saved themselves $13.5 million by declining the options of Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd. This leaves their left field situation unsolved (Aoki was the starter there when he was healthy), but the team explained their reasoning for doing this.
"Giants GM Bobby Evans said he hasn't ruled out re-signing Aoki later this offseason. But picking up his option 'could encumber our flexibility' as the club both seeks to stockpile available funds to go after high-profile starting pitchers while also keeping open some intriguing trade possibilities to address the outfield," writes Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.
Rumors have suggested the Giants are poised to make a big run at Greinke. I certainly don't doubt that, but Evans and president Brian Sabean will certainly be prudent in their decision. Do they really want to sign a 32-year-old to a lucrative long-term deal when they are building for the future and also looking to bolster the outfield? Maybe, who knows.
My prediction is that they'll go after Jordan Zimmermann and Alex Gordon, but offseason plans obviously change. They'll be in the running for Greinke, but I don't think he'll be their primary target.
2. Texas Rangers
The Rangers are coming off a great season, but they could lose a couple of starters to free agency. Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis will hit the open market and the team still has to wait for Yu Darvish to recover from Tommy John surgery. The rotation is just about the only aspect they'll need to address considering the lineup is one of the best in the MLB in terms of offense and the bullpen made remarkable strides as the season progressed.
With about $120 million committed to the 2016 payroll, the Rangers have some room to work with. And looking beyond 2016, Adrian Beltre's $18 million salary will come off the books after next season and Joey Gallo will likely take over that third base, which is a huge discount.
Why not give Greinke the money? If the top of their rotation consists of Greinke, Darvish and Cole Hamels, they'll be one of the most dominant units in the MLB. Imagine Greinke with really good run support?
Also looking ahead: Derek Holland has an $11 million team option for 2017 that the team is likely to decline unless the left-hander has a stellar 2016 campaign.
After trading a number of top prospects for Hamels - including pitchers Alec Asher, Jerad Eickoff and Jake Thompson - it wouldn't be a bad idea to sink some more money into the rotation to buy some time in order replenish those lost arms in the farm system.
This is doable for the Rangers and I wouldn't put it past GM Jon Daniels.
1. Washington Nationals
Yes sir. They have only $92 million committed to 2016 and will be losing two starters in Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. Also, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez are not guaranteed to be retained past 2016. This leaves Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross as the only starters signed on after next season.
They also have top prospects Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole, but there's no guarantee those right-handers develop into capable MLB starters (although they're expected to).
So why not pad the top of the rotation with Greinke and usher in the prospects with some formidable veteran leadership? They have the money, and now with a new manager the Nats will be looking to make a splash in the weak NL East. The Mets will likely get worse, so this is Washington's chance to take advantage.
With cost-controlled players such as Ross, Michael Taylor and Trea Turner, the Nationals don't have much to worry about in terms of financials. And if they trade Jonathan Papelbon then they'll free up some more cash.
Greinke would probably view the Nationals as a favorable destination due to their young and talented core, top-10 offense and favorable situation in the NL East. They certainly give him a better chance to win in the foreseeable future than the Dodgers do.
