The New York Mets need a bat and a good defensive outfielder. MLB free agency isn't exactly providing them with any cost effective options, but general manager Sandy Alderson could get creative and make something significant happen.
Might Jason Heyward-to-the-Mets rumors start creeping up on us?
Rumors have yet to link Heyward anywhere, mainly because the 26-year-old is expected to land a $200 million deal and there aren't many MLB clubs lining up to pay that kind of money for someone who plays such a deep position.
However, Heyward's defense is perhaps the best in the league and his bat is only going to get better as his best years are ahead of him. It doesn't seem as if he'll match his 2012 campaign (27 home runs and 82 RBI), but he still batted an admirable .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers, 60 RBI and 23 stolen bases and also won his second straight Gold Glove award in 2015.
But back to the main point: Heyward is a good fit for the Mets and the Mets can make it happen.
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden, who profiled the top 50 free agents for the MLB offseason, lists the Mets as one of the "best fits" for Heyward. He also projects Heyward to sign a nine-year, $207 million contract while others have ball-parked 10-years for $200 million. Either way, he's expected to make a ton of money.
And while the Mets are notoriously known for being frugal, signing Heyward can work out for them financially. If the outfielder signs that big of a deal, and with the way the MLB has been in recent years, his representation is bound to demand and opt-out clause three or four years down the road - likely so he can hit the open market again when he's 30 years old.
That's something the Mets should welcome with open arms.
"His agent, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, negotiated opt-out clauses for pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke," writes FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
"A team could give Heyward an opt-out after three or four seasons and secure his prime years. If Heyward was reasonably productive, he likely would opt out and the team's commitment would end there."
In that scenario, New York would more than likely pay for Heyward's best years and then probably be off the hook for the remaining five, six, or seven seasons. Does that not perfectly match up with the Mets' World Series window?
Take a look at Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million contract. The slugger can opt out after 2020, so the Marlins are only on the hook for $107 million from 2015-2020. While it sounds insane, it's more than likely he opts out based on the way players are getting paid nowadays. If Stanton stays healthy and continues to produce formidable power numbers, he'll be in line to get another ridiculous long-term deal when he turns 30.
So say Heyward inks a 10-year, $200 million deal (just because it's the easiest to use). That's an average of $20 million per season. Perhaps the Mets could get away with backloading the deal a bit to provide financial relief for themselves for the first few years. Maybe, maybe not.
All in all, the worst-case scenario is that the Mets would be paying Heyward $80 million over four seasons assuming Heyward exercises the hypothetical opt-out clause after his age-29 season. Just for some perspective: New York signed Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million deal two seasons ago.
Additionally, the Cardinals just lost starting pitcher Lance Lynn for the 2016 season after he underwent Tommy John surgery and they'll likely need to explore free agency for a starter that can produce similar results (hint: it won't be cheap). On top of that, the largest contract in the history of their franchise belongs to Matt Holliday (seven years, $120 million), so it's also unclear if they'd be willing to go past that figure regardless of the circumstances (and with their deep, young outfield).
So why hasn't Heyward-to-New York been more widely speculated?
Well, the Mets don't need a corner outfielder right now. Heyward is primarily a right fielder. In fact, he's the best right fielder around.
However, he has made his appearances in center field and they've been impressive. He's logged only 32 games in center in six MLB seasons, but there's little doubt he can handle the position on a full-time basis.
Drew Fairservice of FanGraphs questioned why Heyward isn't a center fielder in a pretty cool piece from last year. (It includes a video of Heyward making a ridiculous game-ending play while in center.)
Here's what ESPN Insider Keith Law wrote about Heyward last season when the Cardinals traded for him:
"Heyward consistently rates among the majors' best defensive outfielders in terms of both advanced defensive metrics and traditional evaluations. A decent center fielder in high school, he outgrew the position but maintains the athleticism and strong reads that allowed him to play there as an amateur."
It'd be silly to say he doesn't still possess the athleticism or reads to play there at least for the next few seasons. Sure, he's a bit tall at 6' 5", but he has the dexterity and agility to play there before he gets too old. I mean, for crying out loud, the Mets played Yoenis Cespedes in center field for much of his time with the team and he hadn't played more than 20 games at the position in a single season since 2012.
It's hard to believe Heyward wouldn't be open to a move to center, but that remains to be seen. I'm sure he'd be happy to captain the defense in the Mets' outfield, especially since he'd have good defenders alongside him in Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto.
New York can't afford to have another player in the field lacking quality offensive production.
"Juan Lagares is an outstanding defensive center fielder, but his on-base percentage dropped to .287 in 2015, which is hard to keep in the lineup," per The Sporting News. "Heyward's never been a full-time center fielder, but he's handled the role in small stretches during his career, and he could make sense there, with Granderson and Conforto on the corners."
Maybe that's realistic, maybe it isn't. Who knows.
I'm sure the Mets could find trade partners for Granderson if they don't feel comfortable with Heyward in center. If they do, they can certainly find trade partners for Lagares, who is under a bargain five-year contract.
Here's another thing to consider. If Heyward receives and opt-out clause and exercises it after three or four seasons, he'll be with the team for as long as their core of young starters. Take a look:
Matt Harvey - free agent after 2018 season
Zack Wheeler - free agent after 2019 season
Jacob deGrom - free agent after 2020 season
Noah Syndergaard - free agent after 2020 season
Steven Matz - free agent after 2021 season
That sounds like something both parties would be interested in. The Mets would get Heyward in his prime and Heyward would get to be in his prime while the Mets' starting rotation is even more experienced and perhaps poised for another World Series run.
The Mets have expressed interest in Dexter Fowler, Denard Span and Gerardo Parra, but if they're going to spend money on the open market it might as well be a surefire investment. Heyward will provide a great return and he doesn't show any risks of declining at age 26, while Fowler (29), Span (31) and Parra (28) are all at least two years older.
New York isn't projected to exceed an $88 million payroll in each of the next five seasons, and that includes guaranteed money, contract options and arbitration settlements. Right now they're projected to be at $84 million for 2016. In a New York market following a World Series appearance, $84 million is almost laughable.
They should add Heyward and make it $104 million.
