One reason why I love "Game of Thrones" is because it constantly subverts your expectations. The HBO series does not adhere to standard narrative tropes, so the audience is always unsure about what's coming next.
Surprisingly, fantasy football works in a similar fashion. By that, I mean your expectations are completely irrelevant. Fantasy doesn't care about what you think will happen. During the preseason Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson was being touted as a potential No. 1 pick. Fast forward a few months and Anderson has been as effective as Joffrey's Kingsguard.
What about Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown? Without Ben Roethlisberger, many may think Brown is doomed to fantasy irrelevance. But then you remember Landry Jones started in Week 7 and Brown racked up six receptions for 124 yards on eight targets.
Fantasy football is a wonky game in which nothing happens exactly as you predict it will. The best you can do is minimize your risk and stay as prepared as possible.
As always, here are a few players I'm hot on this week and a few I'm cold on.
HOT
QB: Blake Bortles
We knew that there was a chance Bortles could break out this season, but no one quite expected this. The sophomore QB is on pace for nearly 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns. He's tossed multiple tuddies in four straight games and is playing a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks 29th in passing (283.9 yards per game), last in takeaways (four) and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year.
Not much else to say here. I'm on the Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles bandwagon.
RB: Doug Martin
Who would have thought Martin would claw his way back into fantasy relevance after two straight disappointing seasons? Again, fantasy does not care about your expectations.
Martin currently sits fifth in the NFL in rushing with 643 yards. Tampa Bay as a team is tied for 10th in carries this year (236). Its opponents, the Dallas Cowboys, have allowed an average of 22.3 fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, second-highest mark in the league. The Cowboys have surrendered 10 total touchdowns to the position and an average of 111.6 yards per game on the ground.
Welcome back to the land of the living, Doug Martin.
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
In Denver's first matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs this year, Sanders hauled in eight passes for 87 yards and a pair of TDs. This time around, he'll get the shaky KC pass defense at home.
The Chiefs have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year and currently rank sixth in receiving touchdowns allowed (16) and 10th in receptions (175). In fact, KC has allowed either a 100-yard receiver or at least one TD through the air in every game this season. That's an uglier stat line than "Supergirl's" weekly Nielsen ratings.
TE: Jordan Reed
An obvious name with a great matchup. Reed is a Pro Bowl player when healthy, as evidenced by his 6. 3 receptions, 61 yards and 0.6 TDs per game this season (for comparison, Rob Gronkowski is averaging 5.5 catches, 86 yards and 0.86 TDs per game).
The New Orleans Saints are quite generous when it comes to their coverage of tight ends. They've allowed an average of six catches for 80.5 yards and 0.77 TDs per game. Actually, New Orleans has surrendered three scores to the position in its last two games.
Lead with Reed this week.
COLD
QB: Carson Palmer
Love the guy, own him in one of my fantasy leagues, but I'm lowering my expectations this week. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just one 300-yard passer all season and haven't surrendered a passing touchdown since Week 6. Plus, they're coming off their bye week and playing at home.
Also, if it matters to you, Palmer is 1-2 in his career against the Seahawks with a 3:8 TD-to-INT ratio. Your call.
RB: Lamar Miller
Believe it or not, but the Philadelphia Eagles have actually given up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Of course, you wouldn't know it by the lackluster way Chip Kelly's team has played this season, but there it is.
I know Miller has scored a TD in four straight games, and I know that interim head coach Dan Campbell is feeding him the rock much more than Joe Philbin did this year, so this could definitely blow up in my face. But Philly has a stout run defense that has surrendered just three rushing TDs all year. I just don't see it for Miller this week.
WR: Jeremy Maclin
Maclin is seeing a solid 8.7 targets per game and is obviously KC's top target, but the Denver defense held him to just 57 yards in its Week 2 matchup. Without Jamaal Charles, there just aren't enough offensive playmakers to draw attention away from Maclin.
The Broncos defense ranks second in WR fantasy points and has allowed just one receiver to top 100 yards all season.
TE: Jimmy Graham
If you have him, you're obviously starting him. I get it. But it's no secret that Graham has been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment this season. He's averaging just 4.75 catches and 56.2 yards per game and has caught a grand total of two touchdowns all year. This is a guy who scored at least 10 times in three of his past four seasons.
Some of Graham's fantasy struggles have to do with Russell Wilson's refusal to target him in the red zone. Unless that changes real soon, I don't see Graham doing much against a Cardinals team that has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to TEs this year.
