When the Boston Red Sox acquired Craig Kimbrel, the star MLB closer perhaps overshadowed the other players involved in the trade. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski surrendered four prospects in the deal and rumors suggest the San Diego Padres and general manager A.J. Preller may have benefitted more from the trade.
Boston sent prospects Javier Guerra (SS), Manuel Margot (OF), Carlos Asuaje (INF) and Logan Allen (LHP) to San Diego in the transaction, which surprised many because rumors indicated Dombrowski was going to use the organization's surplus of prospects to land a top starting pitcher.
Instead, those assets went to a closer who will be earning $25.5 million through 2017.
Sure, it's likely the Red Sox had more than enough prospects to part ways with in order to solidify the back end of their bullpen, but was it worth it? All four of them were ranked among the top 30 in the organization, according to MLB.com, and perhaps Dombrowski could have used them to acquire a player of better value.
"If you're a Boston Red Sox fan, this is exactly the trade you feared Dave Dombrowski would make when he joined the front office, trading away the jewels of the majors' best farm system for veterans who are or may be past their peak values," writes ESPN Insider Keith Law.
What's also alarming is that Dombrowski told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that "this is probably our major acquisition of the winter as far as the trade market is concerned."
One rival executive told FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal that San Diego "got a TON" in the deal.
Unless he has some sort of plan to sign expensive free agents and/or rid the team of the excessive contracts belonging to Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, many would argue that this "major acquisition" was not a good one.
After speaking with Chicago Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer at last week's GM meetings, MacPherson believes the trade could have been a mistake for the Red Sox.
"It takes more than two or three months to develop a comprehensive understanding of the assets of an organization -- at least according to those who have done what Dombrowski is now doing. It might not be until after the upcoming season that Dombrowski really knows the players at his disposal. It makes it more difficult for him to feel confident making trades than he'd otherwise be."
Dombrowski certainly has an argument to trade the players he did. Margot, Guerra, Asuaje and Allen were all (at the very least) a year or two away from making their MLB debuts and they're blocked by others at the MLB level. The team also has prospects at the same positions making their way through the pipeline (Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Deven Marrero, Brian Johnson, Anderson Espinoza, Andrew Benintendi, etc.), indicating there is no shortage of depth in the farm system.
Still, those four players potentially represented a couple of decades of cost-controlled MLB talent, whereas Kimbrel - if the Red Sox are contenders over the next few seasons - will provide maybe 120 innings of work through 2017. That's a pessimistic way to look at it, but this is a significant gamble and the specifics should be known. Also, Boston needs to ensure its competitive in 2016 and 2017 or else Kimbrel's presence (and $25 million price tag) is useless.
"So that's a Top 25 prospect (Margot), a Top 100 prospect (Guerra), a guy with 2nd-3rd round ability (Allen), and a depth piece with enough upside to be kinda interesting (Asuaje)," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. "That is a remarkable return for a reliever, and in my view, quite a bit more than what the Angels gave up to acquire Andrelton Simmons. Not that the Red Sox needed a young shortstop, but the fact that the Padres got more for a one inning reliever - even a really great one - than the Braves got for a 25 year old above average shortstop is pretty surprising to me."
Kimbrel is perhaps the best closer in the MLB, but finding cheap and efficient bullpen help is more than doable for an executive such as Dombrowski. A number of relievers in free agency such as Joakim Soria, Jason Motte, Tyler Clippard, Joe Blanton, Tommy Hunter, Matt Belisle, Mark Lowe, Joel Peralta, Antonio Bastardo, Neal Cotts, Jerry Blevins, Franklin Morales and Tony Sipp could have joined Boston's bullpen for a fraction of Kimbrel's price.
So who won the trade? Only time will tell. But right now it appears the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrel and the Padres will be reaping the benefits within the next two or three seasons.
