This year's class of free agent outfielders is a deep one. Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler and, our focus today, Justin Upton, headline that cast of players. Upton has many fits throughout the MLB, but where will he land in 2016?
Upton one of the youngest elite outfielders on the market at just 28 years old. His rare combination of athleticism, speed and ability to hit for power make him one of the most desired free agent targets of 2016 and there are many clubs in the market for a left fielder.
"Upton reaches his first shot at free agency at 28 because he signed a six-year, $51.25-million deal with the Diamondbacks, his original club, that bought out all his years of arbitration," writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. "So he has roughly 350 more major league games than Heyward - and, frankly, beats him out in almost every statistical category: homers (190 to 97), RBIs (616 to 397), average (.271 to .268), slugging percentage (.473 to .431) and OPS (.825 to .784). Those credentials mean that Upton could well get the most expensive contract given to a non-pitcher this offseason. But there are reasons why he's not No. 1."
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden predicts Upton will land a seven-year, $161 million contract when all is said and done. Here are the three teams we feel are the best fit for Upton.
3. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will be linked to almost every notable free agent this offseason, so get used to it. Their infield is set for years to come, but there are holes in the outfield, starting rotation and bullpen. It's crazy how a team that just made the NLCS still has a lot of work to do.
Well, left field is a need for them after seeing Kyle Schwarber falter a number of times in the postseason. He's primarily a catcher (if they still feel he's a fit here) and it doesn't seem as if he'll be a long-term answer in one of the corner outfield spots. That's where Upton comes in.
Chicago needs a center fielder as well, but they have some cheap options they can make due with in free agency. Schwarber has played on 43 games in the outfield and his defense is unlikely to drastically improve. It was reported earlier this year that the Cubs had expressed interest in Upton in the past, so perhaps it could be a match.
However, the Cubs also want a high-profile starter to pitch alongside Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. The front office has said they probably won't add two nine-figure contracts to the payroll this offseason, but as we've seen in previous offseasons, nothing is true until it's true.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have a glaring need in left field, and coaxing Upton to sign there in an even-numbered year wouldn't be all that difficult. Yes, the Giants are aiming high as they hope to land a top starter as well, but they could also settle for two mid-tier arms like Mike Leake (as they previously expressed interest in doing) and, say, Yovani Gallardo, Wei-Yin Chen, J.A. Happ, Scott Kazmir, etc. in addition to signing Upton.
I don't know, that's just my take.
They could sign Upton and a top starter, but that'd be hard to assume due to the colossal financial commitments that would have to be made. Last week it was reported the Giants were targeting Upton in free agency, but it was also noted they were looking at Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jeff Samardzija and Zack Greinke.
It looks like they're casting a wide net, but Upton seems like he's very much in play.
1. Los Angeles Angels
A need in left field. Looking for another power bat. Tons of money. A new, aggressive general manager.
In my opinion, it's either Cespedes or Upton that end up here. New GM Billy Eppler just acquired shortstop Andrelton Simmons from the Atlanta Braves and really didn't give up a whole lot for the 26-year-old. Why is that important? Because Upton has draft pick compensation tied to him after rejecting the Padres' qualifying offer. Los Angeles has the 20th overall pick, which they may feel comfortable surrendering since their top prospects consist of pitchers and infielders.
They need a left fielder, so it's assumed they will chase that in free agency. An outfield of Upton, Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun pretty much settles it for the foreseeable future.
However, they could also use an ace, some bullpen help and a second baseman.
The Angels could be looking at a $160 million payroll for 2016, but about $50 million will be coming off the books after the season. They probably couldn't afford two big contracts this offseason (depending if owner Arte Moreno cares about paying the luxury tax), but they could add one this year and another next season. The one next year would more than likely be a pitcher because they are still stuck with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson for $20 million each this season.
So here's our top destination for Upton. Eppler can round off the outfield and the middle of the lineup with such an acquisition and then worry about the rotation at the trade deadline or next offseason. They still have Garrett Richards, who should have a big year, as well as Hector Santiago, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano.
The Angels could make their lineup the most frightening in the MLB by signing Upton. I bet the team is really looking to rebound in free agency after the Josh Hamilton signing didn't work out.
If I'm completely wrong and Upton doesn't sign with any of these clubs, keep an eye out for the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners or New York Yankees.
