Jason Heyward is expected to be one of the most expensive free agents this offseason, but it's unknown how his market will shape up in the early going. Reports and rumors have not focused much on Heyward thus far because of this year's starting pitching class.
However, the St. Louis Cardinals could still be considered the favorite to re-sign the 26-year-old.
"A rogue team could ultimately sweep the market away from the Cardinals, but until one swoops in (see: Angels with Pujols, 2011) the team pull between Heyward and the Cardinals is the strongest," writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "They know his worth to them. He knows how well he fits here. And now it just becomes incumbent on the agent to get the best deal possible from the Cardinals, and that means creating a market of bidders outside to raise the price."
The only problem is that some are projecting Heyward to land a 10-year deal that will pay him in the $200 million range. The biggest contract in Cardinals' franchise history is Matt Holliday's seven-year, $120 million deal and it's not clear if the team would be willing to exceed that.
Additionally, St. Louis has plenty of outfielders. Holliday is under contract through 2016 and has a team option for 2017 and youngsters Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham and Randal Grichuk have proven they're capable of contributing at the MLB level.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Cardinals may have to address their starting rotation in free agency since John Lackey is expected to sign elsewhere and Lance Lynn will miss all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Nonetheless, Goold can still envision a scenario where Heyward stays.
"I wouldn't be shocked if some team offers him a 10-year deal. I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals consider it. Remember: His deal is going to include an opt-out at three, four or five years so that has to be factored in as part of the offer as well."
The opt-out clause is key because it can save the Cardinals a ton of money. For instance, say Heyward signs a 10-year, $200 million deal and he has an opt-out clause after, at most, five years, St. Louis would be on the hook for a maximum of $100 million, assuming he's making $20 million per season. So yes, he would sign the largest contract in franchise history, but the pact would probably not last beyond five years because Heyward's representation is going to want him to hit free agency again so he can sign another long-term deal.
Here's what ESPN's David Schoenfield thinks:
"The Cardinals won 100 games thanks to a pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in more than 40 years. Heyward was a big reason the pitchers were so successful, and the Cardinals certainly appreciate Heyward's value. The biggest contract in Cardinals history, however, was the $120 million extension Matt Holliday signed, though they reportedly offered Albert Pujols a 10-year, $200 million deal before he signed with the Angels for $240 million. The Cardinals also have a replacement available in Stephen Piscotty, though they could move him to first base if Heyward re-signs. The bet is that Heyward would have to take less to remain in St. Louis."
The offseason is young and there are other suitors for Heyward, including the Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and others, so the Cardinals will not have it easy when attempting to re-sign him.
They do provide the best case, however, being that Heyward was a great fit and the Cardinals are among the best in the MLB year in and year out.
