If history is any indication, we already have a good idea of which NHL teams are playoff-bound and which franchises are set for a long offseason of second-guessing and frustrated self-scouting. Per an Associated Press report from last season, since 2005-06, about three quarters of the time, teams already sitting in a playoff spot come U.S. Thanksgiving will go onto play in the NHL postseason. For teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins and Los Angeles Kings, that means a high percentage chance of playing into the spring.
For last year's playoff teams and conference finalists like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks, it means the opposite. That's especially troublesome for the Lightning, the runner-up to the Cup last season.
As noted by Mike Halford of Pro Hockey Talk, at this point last season the Lightning were 15-6-2 with 32 points. As of Friday, they're now 11-9-3 with 25 points. It's not a bad total, and if the postseason started today they'd lose out only because of a tiebreaker to the Detroit Red Wings and the New York Islanders.
As for the Ducks, who struggled through an abysmal offensive drought to start the year, at this point last season they were 14-4-4 with 33 points. They're currently 8-11-4 and five points from a wild card spot in the west.
While both teams still have ample time to reverse their fortunes and put NHL history to the test, it's certainly worth noting that early season output has traditionally been a pretty good barometer of where a team will end up by year's end.
