The Houston Astros were six outs away from an ALCS berth. A shaky performance from their bullpen in Game 4 of the ALDS has left many wondering what might have been. As a result, rumors are indicating the Astros are looking to bolster that unit on the trade market.
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported on all of the Astros' apparent endeavors on the trade front earlier today.
#Astros and #Phillies recently discussed Ken Giles. #Phillies brought up Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez, sources say.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015
#Astros have also been engaged with #Rays on Boxberger and McGee. Houston likes relievers with control years.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015
I've been told that #Astros owner Jim Crane is a big Aroldis Chapman fan. Not sure how that enters into the equation.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 2, 2015
Clearly, the Astros' top priority is the back end of their bullpen. Let's go down the list and see what player(s) would be most realistic for Houston in an acquisition based on Crasnick's reports.
Aroldis Chapman
Crasnick says Crane is a huge fan of the flame-throwing left-hander, but who isn't? Chapman is under contract for one more season and the Cincinnati Reds have already dissuaded a few MLB teams that tried to trade for him because the cost is reportedly prohibitive (three MLB-ready players). I doubt general manager Jeff Luhnow would make such a deal for one year of a closer, unless the two sides are given a window to work out an extension, which is also an unlikely scenario.
On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being the least likely and 10 being the most likely, I'll give this scenario a 2.
Brad Boxberger/Jake McGee
The two Rays' relievers are reportedly on the trade block and it's said the team prefers to move McGee, 29, who is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility with a projected salary of $4.7 million, according to MLBTradeRumors.com. On the other hand, Boxberger, 27, isn't eligible for arbitration until next offseason and he led the American League in saves this past year. The advantage for the Rays is that they can probably get a more favorable return for the right-hander.
However, McGee, a left-hander, has been lights-out the past two seasons. He's 6-4 with a 2.07 ERA and 25 saves over that span for the Rays. Tampa could get a good enough return for McGee and still keep the back end of their bullpen intact with Boxberger as the anchor and save a lot of money.
The Rays have been known to ship arbitration-eligible players out of town when they're due for a significant raise, and it's probable McGee will be a casualty of that process because the team is not in the market to pay nearly $5 million for a reliever.
McGee to Houston gets an 8 while Boxberger to Houston gets a 4.
Ken Giles
To me, this seems like it'd be the best scenario for Houston. The Philadelphia Phillies are in the midst of a rebuild and while Giles is a tremendously talented player, there's little need for a top bullpen arm on a losing club. Giles is 9-4 with a 1.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 151 strikeouts in his first 113 career MLB games (115 2/3 innings).
Philadelphia can flip him and get value elsewhere to perhaps expedite their rebuilding process, which former general manager Ruben Amaro has already begun. However, the front office is now under the oversight of Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak, so it's unknown how they envision the future of this club. Giles could very well be in their plans, but what if the Astros were to offer McCullers or Velasquez like Crasnick reported? You can bet anything the Phillies would sign off on that as fast as the franchise went from perennial contender to the basement of the MLB.
For the Astros, acquiring Giles would be beneficial in a number of ways. They'd get a young, power bullpen arm to join their already young core. Giles also isn't eligible for arbitration until after 2017, so the team will have financial flexibility over the next few seasons (they can add another reliever with the money). However, for the price of McCullers or Velasquez? That's overpaying in the eyes of many.
Houston certainly has the prospects to get such a deal done, even after making a couple of big trades before this year's deadline. They had an excellent draft to help replenish that loss of talent and could perhaps afford to trade from that surplus again to address their need in the bullpen.
Although the Phillies have made a lot of trades over the past year, they haven't been easy to negotiate with. That could play a big role in any potential discussions with the Astros, so I'll also give this scenario a 5.
Prediction: The Astros will make a push for McGee and won't have to surrender as much talent as they would for any of the aforementioned names. They'd also get a hard-throwing left-hander, which could perhaps kill two birds with one stone for Luhnow.
