Talk has swirled since last season that the New York Islanders could trade forward Kyle Okposo, a player who entered this season without a contract beyond 2015-16. Despite persistent rumors of Okposo's eventual departure from New York though, recent comments from TSN NHL insider Bob McKenzie sure make it sound like Okposo, who has performed thus far this season as a big part of the Islanders forward corps, won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
"Conventional wisdom is if you've got a player who is unsigned and you're not going to get him signed - and nobody believes the Islanders are going to ante up for what Okposo wants - that you trade him," McKenzie said Thursday, while appearing on TSN's Insider Trading segment, per Today's Slap Shot's transcription.
"Well, the organizational philosophy of the New York Islanders under general manager Garth Snow now as a contending team - a team that should make the playoffs or compete for a playoff spot - is that they do not have any plans whatsoever in trading Okposo, unless they fall completely out of the race."
With Jack Capuano's group at 14-8-4 and looking likely for a playoff spot at this, admittedly, early date, it would seem an ill-advised decision for Snow to part ways with a player of Okposo's caliber. Playing alongside captain John Tavares and Brock Nelson on the Isle's top line, Okposo has put together another strong season. Through 26 games, the 27-year-old former first-round pick has six goals and 21 points. His possession metrics have taken a dip from last season - his 50.9 Corsi For is down almost four percentage points from last season - but it's very much in line with his career numbers to date. Considering he posted career years in 2013-14 - 27 goals, 42 assists - and 2014-15 - 18 goals, 33 assists despite losing 22 games to an eye injury and subsequent surgery - it's a good sign that Okposo is on pace for another season close to those numbers.
Okposo surely isn't a player Snow or Capuano want to part ways with. He's a strong complement to Tavares and has a knack for both physical play and finishing. Unfortunately, his ask on his next contract will have much to do with whether Okposo's NHL career continues in New York or another professional hockey home. There have been no reports of just what Okposo is seeking, though, as Arthur Staple of Newsday suggested this summer when talk of Okposo potentially being dealt first surfaced suggested, it wouldn't be surprising if he were to be looking for a deal in the range of $7 million per season, quite an uptick from his five-year, $14 million deal, which carried a $4.5 million base salary and just a $2.8 million cap hit.
As explored in this great in-depth piece by Lighthouse Hockey, players of comparable age and production to Okposo at the time they signed their big extension boast or boasted deals that range in AAV from $5 million (Pittsburgh's James Neal, signed in 2012) to $6 million (Montreal's Mike Cammalleri, signed in 2009). Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg, who signed his 12-year contract - something no longer possible under the CBA - when he was 27, one year older than Okposo is now, got $73 million or an AAV of $6.08 million.
Okposo isn't only younger than Zetterberg was, he also averaged more goals and assists per 60 NHL games in 2014-15 than Zetterberg did in the year before signing his deal, though Zetterberg did start far fewer of his possessions in the offensive zone.
There's no doubting that Okposo benefits from playing on the top line alongside Tavares, the physical and emotional leader of the team and a guy whose deal pays him $6 million base salary and carries a $5.5 million cap hit for this season and the two following.
Is Okposo worth $6 million per season? In today's NHL, where talented, if not quite elite players like Edmonton's Taylor Hall and Columbus' Brandon Saad make that much in average salary, the answer is yes. But can the Islanders justify paying Okposo as much as Tavares? Especially when Tavares' next contract ask is likely to be gargantuan and the salary cap isn't expected to rise much next season and possibly beyond?
It's a difficult question and one Snow will likely have to answer this offseason, facing a restricted and unrestricted free agent slate that includes Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas and Matt Martin, not to mention the potential trade of a one, Mr. Travis Hamonic.
