Researchers from The University of Utah have used mathematical simulations to demonstrate how parasitic flies could lead to the extinction of Darwin's finches in the Galapagos Islands. Despite this grim finding, they also believe that pest-control efforts can still save the unique birds that stimulated the theory of evolution.
Dale Clayton, senior author of the study, believes that "the fly has the potential to drive populations of the most common species of Darwin's finch to extinction in several decades," although he adds that their "mathematical model also shows that a modest reduction in the prevalence of the fly - through human intervention and management - would alleviate the extinction risk," according to a press release.
Some of the methods recommended by the researchers include introducing fly-parasitizing wasps into the ecosystem, hand-rearing chicks outside of their nest and using the appropriate pesticides.
Darwin's finches played an integral role in his theory of evolution due to observations of the varying beak and body sizes between species.
"Darwin's finches are one of the best examples we have of speciation," said Jennifer Koop, first author of the study. "They were important to Darwin because they helped him develop his theory of evolution by natural selection."
The study used five years worth of data collected by the researchers on fly damage to finch reproduction and combined this data with other data using mathematical modeling. Using these models, they obtaining probabilities on how well the finches would survive in a fly-infested nest and its effects on population growth and survival.
"In two of the three scenarios tested, our model predicted that medium ground finch populations on the island of Santa Cruz were declining and at risk of extinction within the next century," the researchers concluded.
The findings were published in the Dec. 18 issue of the Journal of Applied Ecology.
