If the world's temperature keeps rising the Salt Lake City region will see a dramatic change.
New research predicts that for every degree Fahrenheit of warming the rivers supplying water the the city will significantly reduce their flow.
The stream flow is expected to decline by 1.8 to 6.5 percent for each degree of warming.
"Many snow-dependent regions follow a consistent pattern in responding to warming," National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Andrew Wood, a co-author, said. "But it's important to drill down further to understand the sensitivity of watersheds that matter for individual water supply systems."
Within only the next few decades crucial creeks and streams could dry up weeks early in the summer and autumn, a National Center for Atmospheric Research news release reported.
"Many western water suppliers are aware that climate change will have impacts, but they don't have detailed information that can help them plan for the future," lead author Tim Bardsley of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), said. "Because our research team included hydrologists, climate scientists, and water utility experts, we could dig into the issues that mattered most to the operators responsible for making sure clean water flows through taps and sprinklers without interruption."
The researchers looked at climate models that outlined the area's future temperatures and rain patterns to come to their findings. They also looked at the region's past weather conditions and NOAA streamflow forecasting models.
The team said that as the temperature warms more of the area's precipitation will hit the Earth in the form of rain (instead of snow). This would cause runoffs to happen earlier, so the streams would essentially run out of water later in the seasons.
"We are using the findings of this sensitivity analysis to better understand the range of impacts we might experience under climate change scenarios," co-author Laura Briefer, water resources manager at the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities, said. "This is the kind of tool we need to help us adapt to a changing climate, anticipate future changes, and make sound water-resource decisions."
