It's not awfully late in the offseason, but it's getting there. A number of top free agents are still available, but are MLB clubs aggressively pursuing a majority of them? Rumors suggest it doesn't seem like it, which means players such as Justin Upton, Ian Desmond and Scott Kazmir may need to consider other options.
One being to sign one-year contracts for 2016, as ESPN's Buster Olney proposed yesterday.
Why?
Because the talent of next year's class of free agents is regarded as paltry, to say the least, and because this year's volume of talent - David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Wei-Yin Chen, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Kenta Maeda, and others - is much too excessive for every single name to sign a long-term lucrative deal.
The first seven aforementioned names raked in about a billion dollars alone and it seems as if MLB teams are now dry, or at least unwilling to keep dishing out $100 million contracts.
The offseason has been especially hard on some of these free agents because big market clubs such as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets are seemingly reluctant to spend big bucks this offseason for various reasons.
So if the trend continues and the demand for free agents remains low, will some of these names consider signing one-year pacts to capitalize on the dearth of talent next offseason?
"We are deep enough into the offseason that players and their agents are presumably reviewing and reassessing strategy, and if they believe their chances for the whopper long-term deal they envisioned three months ago have dwindled or disappeared, the time for target alteration is nearing," Olney wrote.
"For some free agents -- and Upton might fall into this group, along with Scott Kazmir, Ian Desmond and others -- the benefits of taking a one-year deal at a preferred destination should be considered."
"If some of those players in the current group of unsigned free agents can get back into the mix next fall, the market conditions could be much better, because the volume of high-end free agents will be greatly reduced. The best pitchers in next fall's market, it appears, will be Stephen Strasburg and Brett Anderson. And the most accomplished outfielders set to hit the market in the fall of 2016 are: Jose Bautista, who will be 36 next fall; Jay Bruce, who has posted consecutive sub-.300 OBP seasons; and Matt Holliday, who turns 36 in a few weeks."
However, one-year deals can also plague some of these names. In fact, all of them may not benefit from it. For example, what if Upton, Desmond and Kazmir endure another down year? How will their value be affected next offseason?
Upton had a solid year with the lowly Padres, but his stat line (.251/.336/.454) was one of the worst of his career.
Desmond, despite hitting 19 home runs, had one of the worst campaigns of his career after batting .233/.290/.384 and committing 27 errors at shortstop.
Kazmir started off hot with the Oakland Athletics (5-5, 2.38 ERA), but his second half performance with the Houston Astros created a cause for concern (2-6, 4.17 ERA).
Signing a one-year deal would be a huge gamble for each of these players, especially during a time when their services should be in demand. Power-hitting outfielders, established shortstops and effective left-handed pitching are among the biggest needs throughout the MLB.
Still, Olney has a good point here. Teams might be done making large long-term investments and some free agents may have a better chance of cashing in next offseason. The question is whether or not any of the remaining players feel safe betting on themselves and getting comfortable/playing effectively with a new team for just one year.
"Free agency is supposed to be a time when an established player is rewarded for time served, for accomplishments," Olney concludes. "But some players unsigned now could be infected with some frustration because of how market forces have worked against them."
